January 2010 – Junjun's Home

Some Words For My Application: A Review

近阶段总是在忙活博士入学考试的报名和海外研究生院的申请工作。说实话，GRE的考试失利还是给我造成了不小的心理阴影。这不得不让我相信我家乡的谚语——“不听老人言，吃亏在眼前”。现在想来，可能是我当时也过于inherent了，Kuan的说法并没有错，GRE的Second Attempt的确是需要Confidence的，而且也是Consequenced的。无奈，我是个学会计的学生，成本-效益原则已经深深映入了我的脑海。如果说把托福考试和GRE考试仅仅当作学习英语的学费，似乎有点心有不甘。毕竟，作为学费，这个价格似乎有点高。更何况，对我这个穷光蛋而言。

其实真的申请国外学校的时候才会发现：对一个真的想出国的人而言，读经济管理类专业绝对是个大大的“杯具”。尽管说在我们英明的政府和党的领导下，我国的经济还是大有起色。但是在国际视野的比较下，我们还真是个不折不扣的发展中国家。而这样的身份则是直接造就了申请上的杯具。从寄托和太傻这两个国内最大的留学版块上我们就可以看到，最容易出国的专业基本都是理工专业。而商学院出国留学的人则是少之又少（注意：这里我不包括自己付学费）。相比较理工类专业出国的相对泛大众化，商学院的Overseas PhD项目似乎更像是精英的游戏。

从Chasedream，一个比较大的商学院论坛来看，直接从国内学校来申请美国商学院PhD的Offshore Application的成功率是非常低的，尤其是申请一些顶级学校，如MIT的Sloan，Havard Business School，UCLA，Rochester等。而拒绝大陆中国学生的申请原因主要集中于两点：

语言能力：相对于Science和Engineering的学生而言，商学院对申请者的英语要求高得多。从事业发展角度来说，商学院毕业生需要更多的去进行各种商业谈判和商务写作；从学术来说，商学院的论文往往都会有大段的描述性文字来“讲故事”。试想，没有足够好的英文怎么行呢？而大部分国内学校的毕业生的英文水平的确也没法达到这个要求（除了北清的牛人）。
研究背景：如果说英文水平是可以通过努力提高的话，那Research Background就更加要命了。由于众所周知的原因，国内商学院的Faulty们的论文质量普遍难以达到国际水平。即使国内顶级学校的几个海归faculty，他们的论文也多发表在B类期刊，相当于欧美博士生的水准。试想基于如此的Faculty水平，如何能指望学生作出国际水平的研究呢？以至于我有次跟Bill开玩笑说，如果可以借给我一篇SCI的论文，不用多大的IF，我就能在学院斜着走～～。

我的猜想是，可能就是基于上述原因，才导致了很多人的曲线救国。比如北大的Heng Yue，就是在HKUST读的MPhil，然后去Purdue读了PhD。而同样北大的Guohua Jiang也是在HK读了硕士以后去Hass读了PhD。香港中文大学的年轻副教授Cong Wang则是在新加坡国立大学读了硕士，然后在美国完成了博士学位。当然，也有例外，比如Wei Luo，其实还是我校友，在中南财大毕业后去了Pittsburg。

考虑到了我的比较soft的背景，以及不太对得起观众的G和T，我就没有申请美国。毕竟我可不想拿着几百美金的申请费去打水漂。要打水漂，找水塘边的瓦片就Okay。作为心理安慰，我横扫了香港的几所学校。毕竟香港的申请费相对便宜。甚至于比国内的学校报考费还便宜。例如HKU，HKUST，CUHK的申请费都是150港币，CityU是一百港币。而国内的，比如我报的中山大学，我师妹报的北大分别都是200元RMB。上财的报名费更是高达250元。最好的还是新加坡的南洋理工，PhD似乎并不需要支付申请费，只需要把Package寄过去就可以。

相比较亚洲和美国的学校，英联邦国家和欧洲的博士项目则要直接的多。比如澳洲和英国的大部分博士都是3年项目。他们的博士就像faculty一样上下班。工作时间就在各自的Office里做研究。其实想想，这样的工作压力还是很大的。毕竟他们没有美国的那种Course可以作为初到国外的缓冲。不过意识到这种差异也让我了解了为什么这些国家都需要申请者提供Research Proposal。毕竟他们需要找的是veterans，而不是什么都不会的rookie。不过相比美国那种动辄五年到七八年的博士学制，这些国家的短学制则是非常有吸引力。但是考虑到那些在这些国家的水货Master在国内造成的影响，国人对此类学校的毕业生的印象恐会打折。

当然，这些学校跟美国相比，也有很大的局限性。那就是funding的严重不足。以英国和澳大利亚为例，这些国家都是“教育产业化”的楷模。他们即使有funding，也会优先提供给自己人，比如澳洲提供给Citizen和PR，而英国则是给EU的学生。更多的，他们会对外国学生claim非常高的额外学费。这估计也是个产业化的特色吧。不过说实话，就我个人的理解而言，这种自我封闭恐怕对研究水平的发展是很不利的。在这点上，New Zealand首先给出了移民和学生的优惠政策来吸引高级人才。毕竟，不说别的国家，就说中国，澳洲和新西兰都快成了高考垃圾的摇篮了。

无疑，申请这些学校是个体力活。整天转悠BBS和浏览学校的网页实在是个辛苦工作。为此，我不打算继续申请了。还是准备国内的考试比较靠谱。尽管说无论经费、设施、办公室条件、行政效率等方面，国内学校跟人家差距太大。但是毕竟轻松得多啊。人生苦短，何必搞得如此劳命？伤财就算了，毕竟我现在是跟红苗正的无产阶级，实则无财可伤也。

Determination and Success: A Story from Yangzi

A story on Yangzi, a deaf girl, who spent her 15 years on learning how to speak, by observing the mouth behavior and feeling the vibrancies of throat with her hand, was introduced in a documentary broadcasted tonight in CCTV 4. It is so moved a story that I am fully impressed. Just imagine the difficulty for a girl to learn to speak without any direct information from her ears! What’s more impressively, she can talk to the journalists with comparatively fluent Chinese, and getting to know what the question is by observing. An early news report in 2004 is avilable online by clicking here.

Since very young, we were told by our parents that we should be determined individuals. What is determination? In a dictionary that is formed since our naive brain when being a lad, it means permanent sticking, without allowance on simple giving up and unapproved failure. I don’t know if it is related to a special culture or a generally accepted virtue. But I am for sure on its root in Chinese culture with the proof of the early education that is from my grandma and parents. Numerous stories in children books tell us to be determined. In my mind at that time, all the great scientist are of great determination.

Admittedly, such story is a great power for my later study, though they have been gradually eliminated from my mind with the growing on age. But the story that I got on CCTV today bring me back to this topic. And unfortunately, I found I am not that determined when I get older. An accidental search on Douban.com for the read books bring me back to the old days when I was study at high school. At that time, my brother received his offer to University of Ohio, and then his American dream started. The event is a great shock for me, and I was getting aware that I should learn English well. Such belief and strong motivation directly bring me inexhaustible power, and thus render my determination of studying English. The result for my efforts are quite pleasant, my English was boosted, and the benefit from my English excellence is available even today!

But such determination is not available for me anymore. I don’t know if it is the reasons on social environment or just some personal reasons. I am not that ideal and naive any more for imagine my future life in decades after, and I would never set a remote purpose that I shall fight for, like my English study in high school. What I am caring more is about the present situation, e.g. job seeking, graduate school entrance, PhD programs overseas, etc. Admittedly, concern on present situation is not a fatal mistake, it reflects the fundamental desire for the survival of an individual. But the problem is, I have lost my desire on remote plans, only a confusing framework for my present situation is available.

We are living in the emerging market, and incomplete human characteristic may be partly an important feature to such setting. But I don’t know if it would be of severe consequence when increasingly social members are losing their remote plans and then belief and determination. Indeed, such effect can be widely amplified.

PS:Since today, The QQZone would be synchronized with the blog, but I would not take any adjustment for synchronized posts on QQZone for any format settings.

Some Tips for Rookie Empirical Researchers

最近大家都开始做毕业论文了。鉴于现在国内外的学术潮流，大家都开始做实证了。哎，说实话，我们80后这一代可真是累，穿衣服、吃饭、看书什么都要赶时髦，甚至连现在这“人人得而诛之”的毕业论文都开始给我们找麻烦。您说洋洋洒洒数万字的规范研究有什么不好，既可以天马行空，也可以写的很潇洒。若有哪位牛人从小熟读唐诗宋词、楚辞汉赋，此时论文写作便是该君最为得意的时候。可惜，古人云，天有不测风云，今人曰，研究有风险，如今实证研究大行其道，不做点实证研究，毕业论文不放几个表格，不放几张统计图，不去写上一些数学模型，如何能一讨恩师的“芳心”？

正所谓闻道有先后，术业有专攻。由于本人恩师在实证研究上的痴迷，我也就比较早的感受到了实证研究的痛苦与残酷，而自然在如何避免“踩地雷”方面有了自己的一点心得，这里就大家最常见的一些问题来给出一些个人的见解，以求抛砖引玉。

我们一般做研究的数据可以从哪里取到？数据一般使用什么格式？

一般我们的数据都不需要手工搜集。我们学校（中南财经政法大学）已经购买的数据库可以搞定大部分的财务报告数据和公司治理等方面的数据。而CSMAR则可以找到股票回报率方面的数据（我们学校没有高频数据）。如果觉得数据还是不够用，则有两种处理方法：
1. 手工搜集：我们可以通过巨潮网取得所有上市公司公开发布的报告，包括定期公告和临时公告。
2. 请求外援：我们可以通过其他学校的朋友来帮忙。比如Wind的数据质量很高，但是我们学校没有购买。于是我们可以通过自己的人脉去那些购买此数据库的学校和机构来求助。
数据格式可以有各种各样，比如常用的Excel格式，数据库DBF格式，以及各种统计软件的格式等。具体使用什么格式，可以根据自己的情况来定。Junjun早期比较喜欢Excel格式，因为其处理灵活，但是现在更倾向于DBF，因为它能够具有更好的后期处理接口，同时格式定义更规范。
我的数据应该如何来合并？异常值和空值如何处理？

一般来说，我们做研究的数据来源非常广泛，有手工搜集，有来自于不同的数据库，甚至还有部分数据来自于网站。那么，如何把这些数据进行合并是个非常要命的问题。这个问题也曾让Junjun郁闷了很久，想必也是大多数初级选手的绊脚石。大多数情况下，我们可以有三种方式来进行数据文件的合并：
1. 利用Excel进行合并
  
  这是最简单，但是也是最容易出错的一种合并方式，尤其是当你对Excel的各种函数并不是很熟悉的时候。常用的函数有Vlookup，Hlookup等。其实Excel不仅仅可以用来合并，同时它也是数据处理不错的工具。Junjun早期的数据处理也是基于Excel做的。只是Excel的运算效率有点低。Junjun曾有一项最高纪录：一句复杂条件匹配函数在笔记本上计算了20个小时。
2. 利用Access类进行合并
  
  这是一种比较常用的方式。简言之，就是使用Access等自带的SQL（结构化查询语言）来进行处理。SQL具有远比Excel更优秀的算法，效率非常高。但是Access也有缺点，那就是数据库对格式要求远没有Excel灵活，这就导致了一些情况下数据类型不匹配问题的发生。
3. 利用专业软件包进行合并
  
  这也是一种高效率方法，但是Junjun在这里并不推荐给新手，除非你准备未来投身于学术界。通过专业软件包的一些关键语句可以很好的合并，效率绝对不逊于Access，但是需要Hand Coding。对于没有Programming的童鞋而言，这可能就是一种杯具了。
对于空值和异常值的处理，最简单的方法就是剔除。当然，也有一些备选方法，比如对于异常值采用Winsorize方法，对于空值通过EM算法来填充等等。只是这些方法需要更好的技巧和Programming的技术，此处就不赘述了。
我应该使用什么统计模型来分析呢？

不得不说，这个问题非常高深。高深到Junjun现在还是深受其害。按照统计学的说法，我们应该根据不同的数据样本来选择不同的估计方法。什么？听着像废话。那就说点实用的，但是却是没有科学根据的。一般情况下，如果你跟Junjun一样，怕瞎弄闹笑话，那就假定自己的数据服从正态分布（Normal Distribution），采用OLS。而如果你的被解释变量是两分类的虚拟变量，请考虑使用Logistic回归，如果是多分类，可以使用Logit。而如果数据有存在很大的偏倚，则请考虑Tobit。具体的方法，可参考相关计量经济学和统计学教材。
我应该使用什么统计软件？或者说，什么统计软件好用？

这也是一个新手容易问到的问题。这个问题看起来幼稚，事实上却并不简单。其实在Package的选择上，完全遵循着咸菜萝卜各有所好的道理。以工作平台为例，Junjun非常喜欢在Linux下运行计算软件、利用Latex进行论文写作等。而更多的同学可能更觉得Windows+Word平台比较合适等等。

Junjun也曾试用过很多统计软件，如Eviews，SPSS，Stata，SAS和R。就我个人感觉而言，SPSS无疑是最容易上手的。Junjun最早的一篇论文就是使用SPSS完成了所有的工作。但是，SPSS的低效率也实在让Junjun难以忍受。但是不可否认，SPSS最容易找到中文教程，毕竟这是最早进入中国市场的统计软件包。目前最新的版本是17.0（不知道最近更新了没～）。

Stata则是统计软件中的新秀。该软件的特点是短小精悍。定制很灵活，可扩展性强，适合中高级用户。由于这个软件的高扩展性，某些任务在此软件下会非常容易。但是，需要说明的是，大多数关于此软件的教程和说明皆为E文。国内尽管也出版了几本教材，但是在人大论坛上却是恶评如潮。愿意使用此软件的童鞋，请作好阅读大量英文的准备。

SAS则是统计软件中的大哥大，价格昂贵。但是速度很快，支持并行处理。但是语法严格，必须要求正则表达。

R是一款开源软件，通俗来讲，是不要钱的。风格介于SAS和Stata之间。该软件在Linux下效率很高。
我的结果不显著怎么办？是不是可以改数据（结果）？

这是Junjun今天打算回答的一个最重要问题。其实这个问题也是让Junjun最烦的。其实实证结果不显著很好解释：那就是您所假设的关系并不存在。而解决这个问题，也不是那么简单了。除了技术层面的问题，这个问题的解决也涉及到了研究思想方面。在这个问题的理解上，Junjun要感谢他的老板，香港中大的TJ Wong和Joseph Fan教授，夏威夷大学的Shirley J. Daniel教授，台湾大学的李书行教授以及财大的诸多教授。

就Junjun个人的观点，结果不显著可以遵循以下几个方面来进行解决：
1. 我的研究思路有问题否？
  
  这是最基础的问题，但是也是最容易被忽视的。长久以来，我们总是有一种错误的观点。那就是我们先把实证结果做出来，然后再来考虑如何进行解释。殊不知，这种做法就如同当年大跃进一般的盲目。Junjun也曾是这种说法的坚定拥护者，但是在去年的培训中，被范博宏教授给狠K了。其实大多数情况下，我们的结果不显著，或者没法解释，都是因为研究思路的问题。
  
  作为一篇实证论文，最为核心的就是研究假设。所有的步骤，包括引言、文献回顾、研究设计都是基于此。一个合乎逻辑的假设应该有着完备的理论背景和坚实的现实基础。如果说，君的论文假设是拍脑袋想出来的（垃圾文章上的假设也归于此类），那么，君就得好好想下，您论文的假设是否符合逻辑。最简单的方法，您可以使用常见的基础理论，比如产权理论、交易成本理论来尝试从理论基础来推导，看假设基础是否坚实？同时，作为中国市场上的实证研究，我们同时要关注，这个命题是否具有现实性？相关的法规是怎么说的？制度背景是非常重要的。
  
  如果上述仍然不足以解决问题，您可以试着去阅读一些相关文献。尽可能去阅读国际顶级期刊文献，如TAR，JAR，JAE，RAS，JF，CAR等等。相比国内的文献，这些文献做的更严格。同时，关注下TJ Wong和Joseph Fan等人的研究。他们对中国的研究对我们具有很好的启发作用。
2. 我的研究样本是否有问题？
  
  这个问题其实与上述的现实性基础具有异曲同工之妙。作为研究样本，最容易被人攻击，而事实上也最容易出问题的就是样本具有Bias。而Bias的种类和产生都千差万别，最常见的就是Selection Bias。发现此类问题的最好方法就是进行描述性统计分析。同时，我们需要注意我们的研究样本与制度背景的匹配。如：在全流通环境下去研究非流通股股东显然是不合时宜的。
3. 我的数据处理是否出错？
  
  Junjun最喜欢说一句话，统计学是一门数学，而数学是严谨的。当数据处理出现错误的时候，最后数据分析的结果也会忠实的告诉您：这种关系不存在！或许您会认为这个问题非常幼稚，而事实上，Junjun曾也就此犯过错。这里有个真实的例子：Junjun曾在2008年做过一篇论文，由于当时技术尚不熟练，出了很多未知错误，导致结果非常牵强。在从美国开会回来对此文章进行大量重新修正的时候，Junjun仔细严格的重做了所有的数据，但是没有变更统计学模型和估计方法。而修改后的文章的结果显著性和预期吻合非常好。这就说明，在思路没有错误的时候，技术也是很重要的。
  
  常见的错误有区间配比错误，数据匹配错误等。还记得我前面提到的数据合并问题否？合并的错误可是很容易导致严重后果的哦～～
4. 跟导师沟通
  
  这是最后一招，也是Junjun用的比较多的一招。导师总是站的比我们高，看得比我们远的。Junjun曾因为论文数次骚扰了我敬爱的老板，甚至让老板亲自帮忙审阅了好几次英文论文稿。大家应该知道阅读英文论文的感受～～，更何况还是Junjun的Chinglish。
我是不是可以改数据（结果）？

这是今天的最后一个问题。其实这个问题不用Junjun回答大家都知道答案。大家都应该知道什么叫道德，什么叫做学术道德。如果一位科研工作者不能恪守学术道德的话，那他恐怕就没有资格再做这项工作了。目前中国的学术造假已经不少了，都已经驰名中外了，我们就不要再为此添砖加瓦了吧，哈哈，毕竟这可不是什么好事儿是吧？

写在最后：上述这几个问题是最近同学们问Junjun回答的最多的。但是Junjun在准备博士入学考试，所以没有大量的时间来回复。但是Junjun非常乐意就自己知道的来帮助大家。然而，Junjun跟大家一样，也只是一个在读的硕士研究生，眼界、知识难免有局限。这里所作的回答也只是基于Junjun个人的理解和感悟。不对的地方，还请大家一定要指出。

大家如果有新的问题，可以在下面写评论。第一次在我博客评论的同学可能会遇到评论审核。请大家不用着急，我会在第一时间来审核并回答的。谢谢大家的支持！

Reading in Middle Night: Feel About Silence

Due to the difference on the timing patterns at home and that on campus, I prefer reading at night these days. Unfortunately, the books that I am now reading is not a fiction, or some poems, but the electronically versions of textbooks, which are corporate finance, basic econometrics and accounting theory. All these books are written in English. In fact, I should have found some Chinese versions to read, which may accelerate my reading. But the question comes. That the books are pretty expensive, purchasing all these books can be a great bill. Then, to save up some money, I shall keep on reading the original version.

Thanks to the practice that I have took in past years for TOEFL and GRE, that my reading ability has greatly been improved. Reading the text is now a great challenge for me. That is also a key reason why I prefer to save up the expenses of purchasing all these printed books. Admittedly, the electronic version are also of good readability since that are all colored pages. Though I am not a kid anymore, I still prefer such styles, which, according to Bill, sounds like a favor of a little girl. Anyway, my accepted English competence and the colored style promotes my determination of reading such books. You know, each of them are as thick as 700 pages, quite a pile of blocks!

But not all the books are that attractive. Some handbooks on research, which are mainly published by some top publishers, and organized as a collection of academic papers, are nightmare for readers. I have two volumes of Handbooks for Management Accounting Research, though they are regarded as essential collections for important literatures on this branch, I don’t have the power to read. That’s partially why I eventually give up my application to Shanghai University of Finance and Economics. The Financial Accounting written by William Scott may be a bit simpler since its original orientation as a undergraduate textbook. The English version for this book is more or less a bit plain to read, and can hardly attract the interest of a reader. In such situations, the Chinese version can be regarded as good substitution.

I don’t know whether it is necessary to write posts in a styled way for my blog. I have tried to write two articles in such way. Hand-coding for such writing is a good way, and is likely to be more efficient. While, frankly, I always recongize the blog as a personal clip board where I can express my own way of thinking, and i should not keep on writing all the articles in a styled way, as what I did frequently for an academic paper. The words from a random though, though may be of disorder, fully reflect my present situation and feeling. I appreciate the free mind in this process of writing, and the free style of writing as a consequence.

This world needs serious thinking, but not only serious topics. They want relaxation and luxuries as well.

Citizen-managed Teachers: Their Past and Future

For most students like us, who were born and grew up in a city, participating state-owned schools, from kindergarten, primary school to middle school and university, it is hard for us to imagine the ‘citizen-managed’ teachers. The only impression for me is from the documentary films. But a recent notice on the future of these teacher bring such persons into our sight. It is the headlines of the journals and newspapers bring us the opportunity to take a consideration of all these teachers. Prior to the start of this article, I do wish all these teachers everything goes well. They have devote too much to the development of the education in China.

Citizen-managed Teachers and Their Past

Citizen-managed teachers, a special group of teachers that is widely seen in rural regions of China, forms a significant portion of the teachers in less developed regions of China. Unlike the teachers who are holding an official certification from the Ministry of Education, these teachers are taking their teaching positions in quite weak conditions, and are awarded quite little salary, which is about 1/4 to the certificated teachers, though their responsibilities on teaching and their loyalty on students are identical. The asymmetric role on their output and input is an essential feature for these teachers.

The citizen-managed teachers are rendered due to the demands from the comparatively weak economic conditions in some regions. Due to the schools in China are mainly state-owned, the salary for the teachers, especially those for primary and middle school, are from the government. The salary for the teachers is an important portion for the expense on education in annual budget for the government, both the central and locals. For those regions that can hardly support this salary in their budgets, citizen-managed teachers are employed. Their salary are mainly paid by the local village and the school they are working for directly.

For decades, the poor situation for these teachers are focused, and numerous films, documentaries and reports were published. With the concern of the financial constraints that are frequently suffered in those regions that the citizen-managed teachers are mainly distributed, these teachers may suffer from low payment for their salary, and they may not receive the medical insurance and pension plan from the government. For them, they have devoted too much to the education career.
The Contributions of the Citizen-managed Teachers to the Education in China

Though the development of the Chinese economy since the Open Door Policy from 1979 has promoted the civilization process of major cities in China, and the population living in metropolis and medium cities has been rapidly increased, the population of the rural regions is still dominant. The statistical showed that the amount of citizen-managed teachers was to be over 4.8 million in 1977 and this number was reduced in the near decades but it is still a large number due to the financial conditions.

In fact, these teachers has taught quite a lot of students, and they offered the children in remote rural regions an opportunity for their knowledge. Those we can easily find fully equipped schools in large cities like Beijing and Shanghai, where students are enjoying good education quality and excellent instruments, the conditions in rural regions are still limited, especially for the primary schools. One of my classmate used to tell me that his primary school was set by his resident village, which is located in a local temple. And there is only one teacher, who teaches all the grades and subjects, including Chinese, Moths, Music and Sports. It is such teachers that promoted the development of the education and indefinitely, the development of the country, on various realms, including science, technology and economy.
The Mandatory Termination for Citizen-managed Teachers: Possible Reasons

A recent announcement from the Ministry of Education showed that the citizen-managed teachers would have to be terminated mandatorily if they are not able to transfer their identity to a qualified teachers in time. This transfer would consist of a series of exams for courses on pedagogy and an integrated investigation on their teaching performance. The exams sounds likely to be simple but difficult for those teachers since they seldom receive formal training for such courses. In fact, in my opinion, a mandatory termination for such teachers may not that stable. But I suppose this announcement may involve two following governmental considerations.
1. Consideration on Improvement of Education Quality
  
  Frankly, the limited educational background fro most citizen-managed teachers can prevent them from improving the education quality. A statistics on these teachers shows that great partition of them are holding a high school diploma or equivalent. Though they may not face difficulty when teaching in a primary school, the enlightens on the students for broadening their horizon is a problem. In fact, the education quality on knowledge itself is undoubtedly important since it would perform a fundamental role in a student’s further study, the horizon should not be overlooked. And the termination may based on this consideration, since qualified teacher should know more besides teaching itself, ideally assumed.
2. Consideration on Employment for Newly Graduated Students
  
  This consideration sounds more or less out of morality though it is comprehensive. For years, the employment of newly graduated college students has been a social difficulty. And such problem is more severe in normal schools. Since the unique institutional background that the teachers in most public schools are supported by the government, the total amount is more or less fixed. Such situation made the employment for students from normal schools a great trouble. I have ever studied in Department of Mathematics in a normal school, I clearly understand its difficulty. My friends are working in various teaching positions, ranging from teachers in kindergarten to high school.
  
  Such difficulty on employment markets drive me to this direction. Terminating the citizen-managed teachers can provide more vacancies for these students. It sounds quite rational. Such solution can both reduce the difficulty of employment for college students and improve the education quality. But the question is, shall the graduates be willing to go to the rural regions for their career?
What Can They Do in Future?

For those teachers that are facing mandatory termination, it is obviously a tragedy. Since such termination mean they would have to transfer themselves to another industry. The process for such transfer can be difficult, especially when they are getting old, and they have devoted nearly all their best ages to their students. For younger teachers, who are in his/her 20s or 30s, taking some training, or obtaining a higher diploma would be a good idea. More directly, they can make full efforts on exams, pursuing to be a qualified teacher. While for the old ones, their lives may be a problem. They would be returned to the lives like their predecessors, leading their lives on the plants. I don’t know whether they should thank the government for such a release or not.

I don’t know why the governmental decision is always so arbitrary, from the Internet constraints, the controlling on the property market, to this termination for citizen-managed teachers. I suppose only when the government can fully make their decisions according to the wealth economics, the China can really be a developed country!

PS:Writing a structured blog is really a tiring job, but it does improve the readability.

Freedom on Internet: An Alternative Explanation

Abstract: This article mainly discuss the production of regulation on Internet, as well as its anticipated consequence, grounded with the traditional economic theory. i argue the appropriate regulation on Internet is necessary due to the existence of naive users of Internet as well as the herding behavior. But I also argue that strict censorship can also mean cliff effect, which is a tragedy for the users. The contribution of this article is that it is the first time to link the development of Internet to the economic understanding. And the conclusion is also of practical meanings to the academics and practitioners who are focus on the investors protection in emerging markets.

Keywords: Internet Censorship, Naive Internet Users, Tendency Protection

DISCLAIMER: THIS ARTICLE IS ONLY A PERSONAL ARGUMENT THAT CAN HARDLY FULLY REPRESENT THE KNOWLEDGE AND UNDERSTANDING THAT BOTH THE AUTHOR AND THE OWNER OF THIS BLOG OWN. PLEASE BE AWARE OF TAKING YOUR OWN JUDGEMENT FOR ANY PART IN THIS ARGUMENT. NO LEGAL RESPONSIBILITY WOULD BE AVAILABLE FOR ANY PART OF THIS ARTICLE FOR BOTH THE AUTHOR AND OWNER OF THIS SITE.

Introduction

The gambling between the freedom and regulation on Internet in China is now becoming quite a popular topic, especially when Google announced a preliminary decision on its willing of exiting, a direct way expresses his arguments and annoy to the regulations in China. Various discussions and arguments are available in numerous BBS and blogs. Obviously, the freedom on Internet is becoming a new instrument for the US government to criticize the weak protection of human rights in China. A speech made by Hilary Clinton, secretary of US, would apparently concentrate the attention all around the world to this topic. I don’t know if it is necessary to treat it as an important speech or just some words by a politician, since such arguments in really common to see. But in fact, in this post, I would like to provide some deeper understanding on this topic, providing academic explanation for this gambling.
Regulation: A Production of Non-Rationality.
1. Internet Under Ideal Conditions: A Rationality Hypothesis
  
  According to the traditional economic theory, we can suppose that the behavior of an individual would be unlikely important to the decisions of others’ given the setting that the participants in an environment is numerous and countless. In fact, the Internet can provide us such an ideal environment. Considering it as a globally connected network, and the cultural differences exist for users from different countries and regions, various concept of value would be conflict that eventually form equilibrium. But do remember that the equilibrium is a general one. Under such anticipation, the arguments and issues provided by individual to the Internet can hardly affect the others. In fact, the Internet is playing as an pot, integrating various opinions, understandings, and even trivialities. Thus, the regulation on such pot is meaningless since they can hardly affect any one else. The regulation on such behaviors would be meaningless and contradict to the principle of ‘cost-efficiency’.
2. Internet in Real World: Naive Users and Harding Behavior
  
  However, be aware that the setting described above is likely to be ideal, since there is a fundamental assumption of economics that, I assume the individuals using Internet are totally rational. That is, they can fairly judge and decide what to do without any influence from others, which are regarded as exogenous. While whether such assumption can fit the reality is a question. In fact, it is widely acknowledge that the knowledge an individual matters can significantly affect his attitude and depth of though for an event, and such attitude is also related to the characteristic and some psychological factors. For this reason,i shall hereby expand the rationality hypothesis, admitting that the attitude and style of decision-making is differentiated.
  
  Given the differentiated understanding, the interacting influence between the individuals can be anticipated. For differentiated individuals, two types can be generally distinguished, one is holding information advantage and good master of knowledge, who can fully think and express their opinions independently, while the other is comparatively weak on their knowledge and expression. Under such pyramid structure, those individuals with full knowledge and comparative information advantage can thus conduct the fashion, while the others would follow. In such setting, the interacting influence is formed. And the equilibrium I argued in ideal settings are now transformed into a Nash Equilibrium.
3. Regulation on Internet: A Protection Mechanism
  
  Thus the herding among the Internet users forms. Following the terms in capital, I define the users without sufficient knowledge to conduct their own decision as naive users. Due to their disadvantage on knowledge, such naive users would prefer to follow the fashion conducted by certain mature users. Under most occasions, such following can help hide their weak mastering of knowledge, which can be regarded as tendency protection. It is easy to anticipate that the pursuing of such protection can, under some occasions, lead to misleading by those who are conducting the fashions. Such misleading is from the conflict between the personal understanding and accepted virtue given a specified social environment. Related explanation would not be given here since its complexity. And it is the misleading, or say gaps between the understanding and accepted virtue that form the regulation.
Regulation on Internet, Be Appropriate!

The regulation can be important to constrain the fashion that is contradicting to the accepted virtue. In fact, FBI is taking real-time monitoring on the Twitter, a popular micro-blog service in US, to find the clues for both existing and potential victims. And the Emails to and from US is also filtered by the network gate for security purposes. In China, such monitoring is more severe. Messages and posts on BSP and BBS are totally filtered. Any contradicting information is abandoned by such filtering. Undoubtedly, such filtering offers us a better environment, protecting us from harmful information. Just imagine the Internet without regulation, virus, Trojan and trivialities would be the main stream of the Internet.

But we must also be clear that the monitoring, or say regulation should be appropriate. Too strict censorship can lead to ‘cliff effect’, a term used in economics and finance, representing the depression on information announcement in capital markets due to a strict regulation unacceptable to the investors and managers. Similar effect can also be anticipated in Internet as well. A good example on the censorship from China can obviously provide such explanation. Since the 7*5 Event in Xinjiang, China, the Internet service in Xinjiang Province is strictly controlled till now. No Email service, no instant messaging. Taking a surf to the BBS in Xinjiang, though accessible to the citizens there, little information can be found. The other example is on Google.com. There is little report in China, but it becomes a hot topic in WSJ, a top newspaper in the field of finance, in the next two days. Obviously, the censorship in China leads to the serious cliff effect. While, jokingly, I wonder, is the cliff effect just what the government want?
Censorship and Cliff Effect: A Tragedy for Most Chinese!

Admittedly, appropriate regulation on the Internet is unquestionable. Such behavior is meaningful to the protection of naive users, who takes up the majority. But too strict censorship in China has changed its purpose. In China, the censorships is being blindly expanded. Nearly all the excellent Web 2.0 service has been abandoned in China, the personal websites, including the BBS and blogs has been strictly controlled. Anything that is contradicting to the governmental willing, even the potential ones that can hardly be observed, would be deleted. Democracy has lost its meaning here. i don’t want to underestimate the brain power of the leaders, but frankly, such censorship is a tragedy.
Enlighments to Research on Capital Markets: A Joke

Literature on accounting and finance provide us evidence that the protection of investors is quite weak in emerging markets, and the governmental organization for regulation is seeking for an efficient way for solution. Now I suppose the answer has been out. That is, they can learn from the censorship of Internet, a good lesson on how to build a solid firewall against its citizen!

THFD: Free Lunch for Researchers

It is widely acknowledge for the researchers on finance and accounting as well as related fields that the access to the data for their researches are undoubtedly essential. Unlike the traditional research framework that our predecessors did in 1950s and earlier, when narrative researches are mainstreams, the research nowadays, defined as contemporary researches in most literatures, are taking great preference on analytical methods and quantitative analysis. For researchers in China, especially for the fields of accounting and finance, empirical research is very popular these days. While, the data for these researchers who are conducting empirical researches means a lot, because they can directly decide the availability of a proposed research.

For most researchers that are employed in top institutions, the access to these data would not be a problem since they are mainly purchased by the library, clients within the certain IP range would be permitted for their visits. But for the graduate students and some researchers who are not in the top institution, the access would be a problem since the library of their institution would not will to, or without sufficient financial ability to afford, to purchase such service. Thus for them, doing contemporary research and publish their papers in top journals would be a nightmare. In fact, due to the lack on access to COMPUSTAT and CRSP, most researchers in China can hardly keep pace with the scholars in US and Europe for top researches, though that does not matter much since we can still do the research within China. Frankly speaking, the market of China itself can be regarded as a good example of emerging markets.

However, for those researchers and graduate students who even do not have adequate access to the data in China, it would be a nightmare. Without sufficient data and strong support for the conclusions (anticipated) in a manner that is based on strict statistical analysis, the research would be regarded of little value and credibility. In the old days, including me, I would use a VPN connection to some other top universities in China, acquiring the data from their databases, especially when I am taking my vacation off campus. Since the VPN service is only available for the faulty in my school.

But now, thanks to the carefulness of Junmei, it is her hard working and strong interest in research that eventually lead to the finding of the THFD, a free solution for the data access for most researchers in China, which is hard to believe in but is indeed the fact. According to the instruction on its site, this database is free to all the researchers who are interested in the China related questions. To start use this service, you shall visit its official site, and you will see the following site. Clicking the registration button would lead you to the site for a free registration. In fact, the interface for this database is quite similar to the Julin, a paid database provider in China. PS: A later test find that the Julin is also the provider of the data in THFD.

After registration, log in with your own username and password, you will be redirected to the main page, where you can start your data collection intermediately.

In an integrated site, you can conveniently collect various types of data in a single sheet and export it as Excel spreadsheet. But the structure for this spreadsheet would be two dimensional, you would need to transfer it into a long structure, which is more beneficial for most analysis. Such operation is quite simple in professional packages like Stata and R.

Considering that the potential readers for this post would be current and potential researchers who are at least, of some familiarity to the usage of such data, and this post is not intended to be an user guide, the details for the usage is not provided. For details and information, please refer to the help center provided in this database.

For users who are using Windows Vista / 7 and Internet Explorer 7/8, please turn your Compatibility View on. And, Internet Explorer is preferred. I have tried to visit this site with Chrome, but some unexpected errors occurred.

Please intuitively follow the copyright law in both China and the country of your residence when using this service. There is no English interface, which may bring you some trouble if you are not good at Chinese.

Career and Romance: A Puzzle?

It can hardly be denied that romance is a strange thing. Unlike the regular events that can easily be controlled in certain routines, the romance can hardly be controlled rationally. More likely, the development of the process for a couple falling in love seems to be a random walk, no matter you are originally determined or not. One may not be able to fully understand this unless you own the experience. It is a kind of experience that involves true loving, demands and even sex, any tiny error made in such process can mean influencing consequence in future. And, under most occasions, it is highly related to the career, another key aspect of human lives.

Loving stories can be easily found in some journals and newspaper when you pick up one randomly in a school library. The stories are frequently similar though figures in the stories vary. The conflict between the career and the romance is typically a permanent topic. For comedy, the couples get recognized occasionally and work together for future, like housing, business, etc. The ending of such story is always quite pleasant and sometimes romantic, that both romance and career are of harvest. While for such topics, tragedy is more common to see. Such story often starts from a couple being like peas and carrots, and then face a single choice for romance and career. Then difference value concept between the man and ladies are exhibited: career is often preferred by the men and romance by the ladies.

In fact, the latter style of choice is more common to see, which is regarded as reconciling. For any parties that are participated in a game called romance, you can hardly expect great outcome without sufficient income, which, in this game, is regarded as a sacrifice in either romance or career. Unlike many other choices that the alternative choice can easily be explained for deny, this choice is a puzzle, because preference to any party in this choice for romance/career are both adequately rational. For preference on romance, it is comprehensive, since the pleasant experience rendered from this can hardly be substituted, and meanwhile, it is a necessarily preliminary step for coming marriage, which is of great demands for majority. In other hand, preference on career is also a wise choice. Career can mean individual success in numerous realms of life, like great profit from running a business, obtaining a demanded position etc. Considering the traditional responsibility for a man that should support the whole families, including the parents, wife and offspring, the success on career is one of the most effective resolution for such purpose. That’s why majority of men are holding their preference towards the career.

Such choice can be more difficult for graduates, no matter you are graduating from a college or graduate school. Difference on cities that a couple works and residents can directly lead to failure of their romance. Comparing to the virtual basis on their romance, which is typical nominated as love, the survival is more essential. The romance can only come into practice when the survival is not a question anymore, which is regarded as grounded. Never try to believe in your determination. Such determination is only valid when the environmental settings are unchanged, which is and is only an assumption. Under most occasions, we have taking too much time and energy to fit for such changes, thus career and romance can hardly be taken into account simultaneously.

And making such decision is not an easy job. A preliminary and necessary step for a decision-maker is to think over. Such rule is consistent to the choice on career and romance as well. For a person who is of great preference on career, his/her romance would be regarded as a kind of sacrifice, or say opportunity cost in economic terms, or vice versa. To make it, everyone must be aware of his advantages and disadvantages, which kind of living they are willing to lead to, and basically, a full perspective of the near future.

I don’t know who such choice would be like in a US setting, but the framework for both understanding and interpreting in this post is of Asia styles. Wise and correct choices are typically regarded as precious, especially one of such importance that fully decides his/her future life. An optimized contract for both career and romance would be fully appreciated. But meanwhile, whether such solution exists is still under questions!

Some Words on Earthquake in Haiti

If you are watching the CNN News daily you would find the earthquake that happened in Haiti some days ago is now a hot event. CNN, FOX, ABC and CBS are all focusing much on this event. Taking CNN for example, the most frequent channel that I am watching these days, they are broadcasting the news on this earthquake in 24*7 mode with frequent remote connection with the journalists in Haiti, delivering the latest news to the audio in front of the TV set. For the details and developing of this event, please visit related sites on CNN directly. In fact, the earthquake has been raised to the first rank for the hottest topics. The two following graphs on worldwide and China visits respectively provides additional evidence on this event.

This earthquake reminds me of the days when the earthquake happened years ago in Wenchuan, Sichuan of China. It was such a great disaster that the whole China was suddenly dropped into the sadness. As is told by a friend who was just a student in Sichuan that time, the earthquake would be deeply impressed in her heart that can never be forgotten. So now, I fully understand who would the Haiti be at present. Such feeling is enhanced when I saw the terrible videos through the CNN. The reports from CNN bring me a new understanding on the styles on the news delivery in US.

Undoubtedly, a comparison on the news reports and the governmental announcements can bring us better understanding to the differences between the culture in China and that of the West. The rescue of this earthquake is to be an opportunity for the US to exhibit both its respect on human rights as well as the high technology that is adapted in this rescue. Admittedly, the rapid response of the US for this earthquake lays on two reasons: one is its short geographic location, the other is the care about the US citizens in Haiti.

A first difference that I find on the news reports is its focus. In CNN reports, they are caring on two key points. One is the medical condition. We can see frequently from the remote connections to the Haiti where the journalists are concerning about the poor medical condition. There is no information on the doctors who are working for the rescue, even no interview, but only about the patients. Still remember what we saw in China? We were watching the efforts from the doctors who are working for the treatments, but no information on the patients and treatments themselves. Can the equipment and medical conditions satisfactory at that time? I don’t think so. The only explanation for this is that we are caring more about the individuals but the westerners are not.

The other difference observed on the news reports is about the children. The both the CCTV and CNN are caring about the situations of the children, they are still under some different. Similar to the attitude towards the medical conditions and doctors, one or two boys (girls) are presented as the symbol. But in a CNN report, we are informed that there are so many orphans now in Haiti, and they want help. A good example is the large photo on the front-page of CNN.

I don’t know whether it is from the difference on the cultural basis that renders all these differences. It is hard to tell which is better. But admittedly, the way that CNN delivers its news can bring its watchers better understanding on the whole development of an event. I am not an expert on media, and I don’t know if the medias in China should learn from CNN for a more transparent and effective way of delivering the news. But, I do prefer the CNN style.

The CNN reports bring me an associate product, the understanding of the unofficial organization in US. Still remember President Bush and Clinton? They have just founded a fund organization aiming at allocating donations and offering help for the sufferers in Haiti. A website named ‘Clinton Bush Haiti Fund’ has been settled. I don’t want to deny the political incentive of this fund, but they do good things.

With there would be more survivors in Haiti, God bless you all!

Google in China: To Be or Not To Be

It would be amazed to see that a young man who works at the computer for eight hours and more that is ignored about Google. For us, the coming out of search engine has changed our lives. Their service make the seeking of specified information from the pool of Internet become easy. Among the numerous search engine, Google is undoubtedly the most famous one due to its advantage on technology and service. And in less than a decade, the Google has developed from a small workshop, settled in a garage, to a global company that integrated various services, like online photo album, Email service, Books, etc. However, it is this large firm that announced his willing of exiting China this morning.

The respect of freedom is a virtue of the Internet, and it is proposed to be a bottom line for Internet as well. In a virtual environment of Internet, people from everyone corner can share their understanding on public affairs, political events, and technical issues. It is the application of the Internet that boost the development of international trading and academic exchange among the institutions around the world. No matter if you are an expert, professor or just an ordinary citizen from a small town, the Internet is served as a public dictionary, from where you can look up historical events, statistical data, or even the pricing vegetables in a town that you are living in. Any attempt on preventing the users of Internet from obtaining certain contents can thus be regarded as a volatility to its virtue, except for some cases like threatens to the national security.

But in a mystery China, everything can happen, including the governmental control of the usage for this network. For decades, the information from the Internet is carefully filtered, which is generally introduced in a previous post. Such filtering also exists on the controlling of paper based materials. Materials and publications that are against the communism are fully controlled, especially when such materials are written in simplified and traditional Chinese, which is comprehensive for most readers hereby. That’s why for decades, the custom between Hong Kong and Mainland is caring much more on the publications within the traveler’s luggage, comparing to the custom in Shanghai, who are welcoming most travelers from US and Europe.

Google’s respect to the virtue of China is apparently conflicting with willing of the Chinese government. For Google, they are willing to present every result that they can obtain from the Internet based on their automatic indexing service, which is regarded as both the virtue of Internet and their customers. In contrary, for Chinese government, such service may not be that pleasant. Since the result presented by Google can offer news reports and analysis from other news agencies that are inconsistent to the Xinhua News Agency, which is regarded as an authority of news in China. To prevent the readers in China of reaching such ‘invalid information’, the links to the ‘invalid information’ that is regarded by the government would be reset by a firewall, known as GFW. The service of Google would down for minutes when such volatility is detected.

The reset by the GFW greatly reduce the user experience of Google. To reconcile for this action, Google.cn, a special edition of Google in China is coming out. His result is artificially intervened and all the ‘invalid information’ would be excluded. By using Google.cn instead, the user experience is much better, but, the accuracy for the result is totally lost. Frankly, the result presented by the Google.cn is biased, which is criticized by numerous mediums overseas.

i don’t know if it is the criticism or some other reasons promote Google for an announcement on his official blog this morning. According to the announcement, from today, the Google.cn would stop his artificial intervene and provide unbiased result consistent to the Google.com, his global site. And the Google.cn would be abandoned if the government refuse to accept this decision. It is obviously a good news for most users of Google. However, it means much more than only a piece of good news and the freedom for Internet in China.

Abandoning the Google.cn can directly be regarded as its abandon of markets in China. For Chinese users, Google.com would be their only choice, as what we did prior to the release of Google.cn. But don’t forget that the domain of Google.com can be locked by a firewall, just like what they have done for YouTube, Flicker, Face book, etc. Problems can be more serious if the IP of Google.com is located in the black list for Email service providers in China. Such action can prevent most Gmail users to the friends in China if they are using the mailbox provided by an national ISP. It is of some probability to happen due to the official announcement from Google, which shows evidence on the concerns of Email accounts from some persons from the Chinese government.

Besides Email, numerous services would also be unavailable once Google is locked in China. For webmasters of certain websites, including myself, the Google Adsense, Google Analytics, Google Webmasters would out of use. For academic and graduate students, they would never expect the Google Scholar for certain academic references. The life would be totally changed, and we are forced to seek for numerous alternatives for these services. The transition cost can be expected to be large.

I don’t know who would this even further go, but I do appreciate the excellent services that Google has bring us. It is hard to imagine how the life would be once Google is prohibited. Let’s just wait for the governmental response for this announcement.