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Copyright Protection in China: A Long Way to Go

前阶段就有Google扫描书和百度文库闹得沸沸扬扬，可惜我当时非常忙（当然那，我现在依然很忙），根本没有时间去写一个博客。事实上，每次提到国内的版权保护，我都是非常痛心的。而这次京东那个不学无术的二愣子的报告，则让我不得不来静下心，抽三十分钟来写一个博客，以表达我的一些看法了。

何谓正版？

提到版权保护，我们首先会说到底两个词就是“正版”和“盗版”。在进一步阐述之前，我很想问诸位一下，什么是正版？什么是盗版？正盗版的区分就如你们说的那么简单么？为了简单阐述，我给出下面两个例子：
1. 案例一：来自联想公司的正版Win7
  
  在联想进行Win7升级时候，我花了86.5元的价格，利用虚假信息，搞到了一份Win7的光盘。我拿回家，装在了自己的电脑上，而后激活之。通过了微软在线的验证，所以说，我用的是正版。
2. 案例二：我上网下载了一个大客户版
  
  做科研的朋友都会知道有个软件叫做Endnote。因为工作关系，我从网上找到了美国某大学的一个VOL（批量授权）版本，正常安装并使用了。因为这个软件自带证书，所以我使用的也是正版
上述两个是非常极端的例子，也是被广大朋友所忽略的。因为我们所认为的正版盗版，都是这样一个概念，那就是，无论使用何种方式，我就取得正版授权了。然而事实真的如此么？答案自然是否定的。因为，序列号验证只是个手段，而真正能够区分软件正盗版的，则是软件的授权协议。上述的案例其实都有足够证据证明序列号的合法，但是他们就一定是正版么？未必。上述的案例中，两位主人公已经赤裸裸的违反了人家的授权协议了。而一旦违反这类协议，该副本即可认定为非法授权。
为什么要使用正版？

在欧美，这个问题是一个法律问题，无容置疑。而在天朝这种人治大于法治的地方，从道义上去理解恐怕更为合适。我不是政治老师，也不像在这里絮絮叨叨的去重复“四化建设”之类的大道理。我只想问困惑中的人们一句话：你愿意把你自己辛辛苦苦装修好的房子拱手提供给别人免费使用么？

看到Cnbeta上很多人用CPU和正版软件做比较，理由是，CPU的成本比软件高得多。软件也就一张光盘而已。看到这个评论，我真的非常惋惜。我不仅仅是惋惜这位高人的“智商”，更为我们的教育而惋惜。试问这位高人，如果我告诉你很多软件连CD光盘都不给你，而只是通过电子邮件发一个序列号给你，你是不是认为软件就是0成本了？

我们知道CPU是靠工人造出来的，那么软件呢？你知道么，软件是大量的IT民工弄出来的。对你来说鼠标一个小小的动作，一个单击，一个双击或者一个拖拽，背后却是几十行的代码啊。而你使用的软件，背后则是一群程序员日复一日奋战的结果，其中还不包括工程师们的冥思苦想和某人或者某个团队的创意。如果把这些东西加起来，您还认为这是个不需要成本的东西么？

而作为一个正版用户，我至少做了两件事情：
- 对别人工作的肯定。正是因为别人的辛勤工作才使我们的工作和生活变得容易，我们不该付费么？
- 对自己的保障。我估计天朝普通朋友们很少有使用正版软件的机会，也就没有什么机会去接触技术支持和客服。试想，在你工作出问题的时候，你是愿意花一天去Google呢？还是几分钟一个电话搞定？而你的代价，只是你原来就应该支付的软件授权费用而已
我坚持使用盗版，因为我坚信。。。

对于一个常去BBS的老鸟，很多东西我们其实都耳熟能详。而我们常见的一些理由有：
- 跟美国比，我的工资太低了
  好吧，工资低不是你的错，全民收入标准都很低也不是你的错。但是，使用盗版就是你的不对了。难道说你没有钱就可以去超市拿东西不给钱么？要知道，很多开源软件是不收费的，而他们也并不难用。事实上，很多东西好用的很。
- 我们授权费用清政府给我们出了
  对于这个答案，如果是笑话，我可以理解。如果当真，我就只能说你2了。且不说这是一种狭隘民族主义云云，这些赔款你知道是干嘛的么？同样的，一战以后，我们也拿到了“庚子赔款”，甚至于很多现在著名科学家和学者，都是靠着它出去的。难道说，现在老外到中国来旅游业可以不花钱？因为他们给过了。
- 别人都用盗版，为啥我要买正版？
  好吧，那别人跳楼你也去？与此类似的是，老外也有很多人用盗版啊。好吧，那么老外那么多人用正版的你咋不去学学呢？呵呵
上述笑话，估计大家也看过不少。甚至有人会发到QQ群里。针对这些人，我只能说，玷污自己可以，请不要玷污别人。毕竟，大多数人还是很明智的。

最后我只想说，版权保护，我们任总而道远。这不仅仅是收入的问题，而是一个与国民素质有关的问题；这不仅仅是一个简单的问题，而是关系到国际形象的问题。
解决问题的根源：教育

通过以上种种简单的列举，或者我们生活中的所见所闻，我们会发现：其实要提知识产权保护，最根本的还是提高国民的素质和观念。观念不更新，教育不提上来，一切都是空谈。

经常有人告诉我说老外非常惧怕我们这些没有信仰的中国人。为什么呢？因为一旦没有信仰，我们就丧失了很多道德约束（老外的逻辑）。而在这种情况下，人性（humanity）已经什么都不是了。为了自己的私利，我们什么都可以做出来。因为，我们不会害怕主的怪罪，我们不会害怕上苍的惩罚，因为我们是唯物主义者。

这样的逻辑固然是可悲的。身为中国人，听到这种论调我也是非常痛心的。但是呢，转念一想，其实也不是不无道理啊。试想我们的官二代和富二代为什么会如此有恃无恐？其实这跟缺乏道德约束也有一定的关系。以盗版为例，其实有时候去主动购买一张正版CD，去购买一本中文书籍，更多的是一种道德行为。

但是我们的教育刻意提醒过么？好像没有。如果我没有记错，我学电脑时候使用的就是清一色的盗版。从DOS一直到Windows系统。在国内的学校读书，我见过了太多的盗版，甚至番茄花园已经开到了教室的投影上。在这样的环境下，重视知识产权保护只能是一场草草收场的笑话。

所以说，知识产权保护，大多数情况下并不是收入的问题，而只是教育的问题。你能花6000块买一台电脑，就不能花600块去买个操作系统么？呵呵

Perks for State-Owned Power: A Case of Wang

Perks of powers with good wealth or position has been quite a common phenomenon in China though it has never been officially acknowledged. In fact, perks within an acceptable range should, by no means, be regarded as a compensation for the efforts has been devoted to for either the wealth and position. However, what we are commonly seeing nowadays, in contrary, is the abnormal ones. The case of Shengqi Wang (王圣淇), a 24-year-old young girl, being appointment to the vice dean for faculty of International Education, Liaoning Shihua University, is just quite a large joke itself.

A story from a 24-year-old vice dean

According to the limited information available publicly, we can see that Shengqi Wang, firstly obtained her Bachelor’s degree from Manchester University and then Master’s degree from Oxford. If taking consideration on how well she has performed on her courses, it would be quite a good, though not excellent background considering her age (Quite a lot of excellent students to see in US). The only thing that made everyone curious and surprised is, she was appointed to be the vice dean of a faculty for a university in China!

Indeed, taking such a position with a young age and excellent performance should be accepted without any doubt. While, the case here indeed means much more potential stories. For readers who own some basic knowledge on the education hierarchy in United Kingdom would understand its indifference between a normal bachelor’s graduate and a taught postgraduate one with the aspect of academic research, which, indeed, is one of the most important criteria of dean promotion for a university in China. And meanwhile, a PhD degree is always expected in such circumstance. Obviously, she would contradict both of the rules unless she is extremely excellent, for which, I suppose, would have been a PhD candidate, being expected to great contributions in some area.
A discussion on perks

Anyway, what I want to talk here in this post is not the experience of Shengqi Wang, and how she get this position. It’s meaningless and can lead to innocuous debating. What I am willing to take a discussion here, is about the perks, especially those from power abusing. Indeed, they would be the most important barrier of the development of China, a country that is willing to challenge the pattern of power and balance globally, since its consequence as unfair on numerous aspects.

Perks from political connection is indeed quite common to see everywhere ranging from emerging markets to those mature ones. The hypothesis set with political factors by Watts failed to be tested in US but get its test field in China. Numerous articles has been published in recent decade on top journals that discusses the relation between the connection and firm performances. Such discussion includes how shareholder value the connection? How can firms benefit from such connection regarding external financing? And even how can the performance of a specific firm boost the promotion of a civil officer?

While in contrary, the perks that appears in the daily life would be far more sensitive for both open discussion and survey. This is partially why I write this post in English. Regarding the East Asia as a region that respects personnel more than legal regime, it would be easy to understand where the perks come from. And the political connection of most large firms in China discussed above is also essential since it largely promote the probability of happening of all these power abusing.

Why would all these perks cause unsatisfactory among the citizens? It is indeed an associate product with the development of the economy of China since the Open Door Policy since 1979. Though perks has been existed on job distribution, purchasing of restricted commodities quite a long time, even during the 1950-1979, when the policy of China is quite similar to the North Korea today, an era of extreme autocracy, it would never be focused since its minority.
Associate product accompanied by economic boost

However, things are going different when the economic boots, especially in a near decade. Though most people are still leading their normal lives, like my parents and many persons around me, some start to accumulate their political power and wealth with their superior knowledge and horizon. Such process, of accumulating the personal wealth, or pursuing the political power, or even both are quite normal if they are purely based on information and all the rules are obeyed. However, this is unfortunately of being, and only being an ideal hypothesis. The origin of wealth is starting to make its transfer, from the personal effort and knowledge, to the dependence on human network and power. A recent documentary about China published by BBC, named ‘The Chinese are coming’, is a good example to see how this system works though they only cover the commercials in Africa.

Succession of wealth and network is an important concept from the Chinese traditional culture on family. It is indeed acceptable if offspring are capable of doing this. Many family groups in Asia and US follow this routine and they paid sufficient cost on training for the successors. However, things are largely different in China since such succession has largely been expanded to the monopoly industries, occupation of vacancies for civil servants and even entrance to top schools. As I said before that the potential assumption for succession is comparative fairness and great intelligence, while they are totally contradicted. You can enter a top school with good network and being admitted as a civil servant with the support from your parents. Your legal penalty would even be waived with a father of Li Gang.

So you may ask me where are the talented Chinese with good family background? The answer is they are now studying and working in US~~.
Where does perk come from and what should we do?

You may want to claim for the unfairness since you may say I can hardly speak English and work in US, but have you thought anything about its potential assumption on why it would happen? It is indeed coming from the overlooking of both the democracy and litigation. Such abnormal perks as well as the abusing of power would largely be diminished given an efficient monitoring system. Taking a look at the government and social environment of Hong Kong and Singapore would definitely bring you better understanding.

Why do I care about all these questions? Because it is now threatening the credibility of the Chinese government to its citizens, especially those educated ones. A good example is the willing of welcoming the talented Chinese scholars back to China from the government. It is a good decision that would largely promote the development of the whole country but its feedback from the students overseas are quite plain. Why would this happen? A direct reason is their concern on the regime.

It would be too late to be aware of all these things when the regime is working like the Egypt. Taking a good look at ‘The Chinese are coming’ would be beneficial if you are taking a reasonable thinking. Being a Fenqing means no good to the country, but being an educated one with reasonable thinking works.

Is Higher Price Deserved? The “G” Train of China

近日一好友问我为何最近不再更新博客，我笑而不语。其实并非我懒惰，而是我最近在家天天研究多元统计、数学分析以及Matlab和Mathematica两个软件，实在是没有什么东西可以往博客上写。与在学校的时候相比，家里的日子的确是清闲了很多。清闲的日子固然很好，但是也却给了我一个难题。那就是，平淡的日子下实在是没有什么特别的事情可以让我来写博客。

然而今天我却有了一个不错的话题。那就是新近开放的高铁。由于打算周五去上海办理赴英签证，我便下载了一个极品时刻表来查看火车时间和车次。不看则以，一看却被着实吓了一跳。说真的，我太高估“铁道部”的仁慈了。为了在沪宁线上，这个所谓的中国最富庶的地方推广所谓的VIP火车（姑且这么称之），几乎所有的沪宁间的动车都被停开，而以高铁取代之。于是立即，网上网下骂声一片。而我也来了兴趣。现在的网络技术如此发达，何不通过网络技术来对火车票价做一个简单的实证分析呢？

样本选择
1. 票价时间
  
  为了能够充分显示近三年来的票价变动情况，笔者分别以2007年4月（动车组开放前），2009年7月（动车组大行其道），和2010年7月（高铁出现）三个时间段的票价和列车运行情况为依据。票价数据则来源于极品列车时刻表和盛名列车时刻表的不同历史版本。尽管软件声明其票价系软件计算结果，就本人经验而言，其票价与真实票价基本一致，具有一定的参考价值。
2. 区间选择
  
  在区间选择方面，笔者选择了三条线路分别作为短、中、长旅程的参考。他们分别是：苏州-上海（<100KM），南京-上海（约300公里），武汉-广州（>1000KM）。之所以选择这三条线路，是因为前两条线路系笔者非常熟悉的线路，而最后一条线路则是笔者好友们经常光顾的。
比较结果

下文给出了笔者初步比较的结果。由于本文系一篇博文，故而并未作出严格的分析和验证，请广大读者注意。
1. 区间一：苏州-上海
  
  这条线路是笔者最为熟悉的线路，也是写这篇博文的出发点之所在。如图为高铁的票价和运行时间。
  
  上图的结果表明，目前苏州到上海的高铁价格（二等座）为41元，运行时间在34分钟左右。而下图则显示7月1日高铁运行前的价格情况。传统的动车在苏州-上海的运行区间内的时间为45分钟左右，二等座价格为26元。
  
  两者比较不难发现，作为一个普通消费者，我们为了10分钟的提速而多支付了15元。对于这个十分钟的增量而言，我们支付的单价为1.5元/分。试问，这个价格合理么？难道大多数人的10分钟真的价值15元？我看不见得。
2. 区间二：南京-上海
  
  与区间一相比较，区间二的距离更长，运行时间更久，而票价的差异也更大。如果说苏州-上海的票价增幅还能接受的话，那么上海-南京的票价涨幅就令人略感囊中羞涩了。下图是最新的高铁价格表。
  
  上图显示高铁从南京到上海的价格约为146元（二等座），其运行时间为1小时40分钟左右。让我们再来看看D字头车的价格和运行时间：
  
  上图的动车组列车表告诉我们，D字头列车从南京开到上海的时间在两个半小时左右，二等座价格为93元。两者相较，乘客为省下的50分钟多支付了52元。与苏州-上海的价格波动相比，此区间的增幅略小。同时这52元的增幅似乎也更值得。为了更充分显示，我同时给出最早的T字头列车价格：
  
  上图结果表明：T字头车从南京开到上海的时间略为3个半小时，硬座票价为47，软座票价为72。我们发现，三年前的动车组票价提升与今日的高铁价格提升有着惊人的相似之处（略缩短一小时的路程，增加50元左右的票价）。但是我们也注意到，短短3年内，这个区间的票价已经上升了100元，为原来票价的两倍！
3. 区间三：武汉（武昌）-广州
  
  这个区间的高铁开通相比较京沪线略早。之所以提出这条线路，是因为笔者有很多朋友经常往返于这条路上（他们家在湖北，却在广州深圳工作）。在毕业前夕的聚餐时，经常会听到朋友们对该线路“被高铁”的抱怨和无奈。通过数据的比较发现，与前两个笔者相对熟悉的区间相比，这条线路上的价格变化到了令人瞠目结舌的地步。首先让我们来看下武汉-广州的高铁价格：
  
  上图表明，武汉-广州的高铁票价为490元（硬座）。而笔者当时参加完中山大学博士入学复试飞回武汉的价格也不过如此（含税）。为了进一步说明高铁价格与航空机票价格（不含税）之间的差异，笔者找来了一个武汉-广州的航空票价走势图。数据来源为“去哪儿”网站。
  
  上图走势表明，武汉飞往广州的票价最低基本在300元左右。这样价格加上机场建设费和燃油附加税，其价格仍然未能高过高铁价格。更重要的是，航空服务的档次和级别远非铁道部那些“大姨大爷”所能比拟。试想，这样的价格，高铁的竞争优势何在？
  
  然而，笔者的朋友们的哀怨并非来源于此。下图显示了高铁通车以前来往于武汉与广州之间的T字头列车的价格。通过对比，笔者也了解了朋友们的苦衷。
  
  通过上图我们发现，在高铁开通前，武汉-广州的硬卧（下铺）的价格约为240元，仅有现在高铁的一半都不到。尽管说高铁的运行时间大大缩短，但两倍的票价实在是令人难以接受。更重要的是，武汉的高铁车站远在青山，远不如武昌站和汉口站来的方便。然而可悲的是，为了突出高铁，原来的T字头列车被停开了好多趟。以至于现在的T字头列车可谓是一票难求！
结论
1. 涨幅与收入不配比
  
  上述的分析表明，在2007-2010年间，我国的火车通过两个阶段的发展从普通的T字头列车上升到了G字头，而票价的涨幅也超过了100%。在获得了更快的旅行速度的同时，旅客的低价需求与铁道部的垄断行为之间的矛盾愈演愈烈。事实上，铁路票价的涨幅已经远远超过了这三年中的职工工资总额的增长幅度。下图系笔者通过中国统计年鉴的数据制作的一个我国文革后30年来的工资增长情况。
2. 强制性更新 vs 消费者自主选择
  
  如2007年时动车组开行广大的旅客所担心的那样，动车组的开行是否会让消费者难以承受。而铁道部则信誓旦旦的表明，广大旅客可以依然选择普通列车乘坐。事实上却并不如此。以上文区间二：南京-上海为例，我们不难发现原来的T字头短途列车均被D字头，而后G字头列车替换。这是一种赤裸裸的强制性更新行为。
  
  另一个观点也可以说明类似的问题。由于动车组的列车行驶速度超过了200公里/小时，当时铁道部要求动车组均不得售卖站票。但是您现在去二等座的车厢看看？尽管说现在的高铁不允许售卖站票（时速超过了300公里/小时，且加速不稳定），但是在当部门利益与消费者利益冲突时候，铁道部又会做何选择？这实在是个难以预料的问题。毕竟这些现象总是有一个官方的解释理由——“我国铁路运力非常不足”。
  
  上面两图均为动车组车厢。前者是笔者屡见不鲜的，而后者的服务，本人只在宣传材料上见过。或许笔者社会地位不够吧？
3. 制度因素：发展的最大瓶颈
  
  港中大的TJ和Joseph给了我们一个研究中国问题很好的框架，那就是Top-down Framework。的确，几乎所有的问题都可以归结到制度层面上。从前阶段的强制拆迁问题，到躲猫猫事件，甚至于浙江的70码，我们总是看到媒体或多或少的进行不同角度的讨论。不可否认的是，相比较30年前民众的愚昧，今天的人们的思想层次已经进步了很多。或许是一种刻意，也或许是一种无意，鲜有人对制度提出质疑。当然，这是一个敏感话题，笔者在此也不可多言。只是制度约束，会是中国发展的一大瓶颈。

免责声明

本文纯属个人娱乐所作，所有数据和资料均来源于网络。本人不对文中涉及的观点和数据作任何真实性和公允性保证，同时也不承担因为本文分析所引起的任何法律后果。另外，本文谢绝任何媒体未经授权的转载或引用。文中观点不代表任何官方和个人，请广大读者自酌。

Google.cn: Let’s Say Goodbye!

If you are familiar with the happenings these months related to the Google in China, you should not forget the debating several months ago that concerns the exit of Google, a world-famous search engine, from China, a country that is famous around the world for its strict censorship on both Internet and traditional medias, like TV, newspapers and magazines. In fact, in the past few months, majority of Chinese like me, are still holding the hope that the Google should maintain its service in China, with the consideration on the commercial benefit, which, in my opinion, ultimately determines the decision for most businessman.

Google Eventually Leaves China

However, the exit of Google bring me new understand of the business. Unlike the most common businessman that profit is the only thing they care, the great groups, like Google, make me understand that determination of its own culture and perspective is also essential. Till now, Google is the only company that bring the censorship in China open to the public. Though the censorship policy in China is quite strict and known to the practitioners in the field of media, it is rarely known to most common citizens in China, especially those who are not that familiar with Internet and whose English is not that good to read some articles published overseas.

If you open Google.cn this morning, you are surprisingly to see the following website, instead of the traditional Google.cn, a special version of Google that meets the censorship requirement in Chinese government:

On the front page of Google.com.hk, you can observe a short sentence saying “Welcome to the new house of Google Search in China”. Due to the special policy that is adapted in Hong Kong, though it is regarded as a part of territory of PRC, no censorship but only some potential controls on media exists. Following the rules in Hong Kong, Google would face less litigation risk for their oppose to this policy. But the question is that I am wondering whether this site would be forbidden for visit from China. Previous examples for this prohibition includes Yahoo! HK and many BBS in Hong Kong.
Official Annoucements from Google on Its Exit

An updated version of the announcement is also available in both English and Chinese. Due to the key words that are involved in this article, this article would soon be forbidden, according to the rules of censorship. The only question is that how long it would stay in live. Following are the two pics for this announcement. One in English from the Google Blog,and the other in China from the directly link to Google.com. You can click on the pictures for larger size.
Availability of Other Products: Official Evidence

The other action that Google made is that they expose the existence of GFW. Though it has been understood for most Internet users, it is unwillingly to know for majorities. As a strong evidence that argues the freedom of Internet recently claimed by Chinese officials, a site that detects the availability of some largest Web 2.0 applications around the world for most Internet users in China, without abnormal skills and trainings is now available. For interested readers, you can click here. Following is the result of detection today.
Conclusion

We are living in a country that regards censorship as a necessary step for filtering ‘unhealthy information’, though porn webs are mostly available. As a good saying goes that, you should try to be accustomed to the environment once you find you can hardly change it. In a country that regards politics as a sensitive term, any discussion on related topics can bring you unexpected consequences. What we can do is to follow the policy, do what we can do, and never try to break the rule.

Property Rights Protection: A Conceptual Problem

好久没有更新博客了。最近因为忙于准备毕业论文和博士入学考试，我也就无暇顾及这片天地了。同时，最近也似乎实在没有什么值得去深究的题目。本打算就林妙可在今年春晚的直播现场不尊重老艺术家，后来想想也算了。俗话说的好，子不教，父之过。恐怕林妙可这个小丫头的所作所为也并非出于其自愿，而更可能是父母的功利心在作祟。考虑到这种现象也属于个案，大多数的中国人还是非常懂得尊老爱幼的，故而我也就就此搁笔了。但是今天早上QQ群里转发的一条消息却让我来了兴趣。如果说林妙可只是个案，那么我们国人当前的羊群行为和对知识产权的不尊重则是到了发指的地步了。

一条来自QQ群的群发短信

如下的消息应该是大伙儿都在QQ群啊，BBS上屡见不鲜的。如我今天中午看到的一条：

用电脑的朋友注意了啊：具体时间是从二十号开始 !!! 如果大家在使用电脑的时候系统提示你所使用的微软产品是盗版软件等等，而且还会在右下角出现蓝色的小星星～～这是因为：由于美国最近要针对中国上诉WTO知识产权保护问题，微软正在为美国政府搜集相关证据，在最近自序，为了咱中国利益，请大家不要开启自动更新。如果起诉成功,中国将要赔款几百亿.已经开启当提示要你安装“正版增值计划”请别安装！安装后会在任务栏右下角出现一个蓝色五角星符号！这样就会被微软追踪锁定，以向美国政府提供证据！请大家转到其他群上顺带一个，大家转发，这个直接影响所有中国电脑用户的利益提醒大家，以后去麦当劳，肯德基一定要记得要发票。麦当劳，肯德基每年在中国因为我们不习惯要发票的原因而掠走将近２亿的税收，把这条信息完好（不加任何修改复制）发至其它群是中国人的就转发一下累不了你

说实话，看到这条消息我非常痛心，也非常遗憾。在我指出这条短信的问题后，对方的回复更让我无语：

行了，我只是尽个中国人的义务而已

你传就传，不传拉到

对此，我不得不问：RT此类消息真的是“中国人的义务”？事实上，这是在给我们敬爱的祖国抹黑！俗话说家丑不可外扬，而事实上，我们正在外扬我们的“丑陋”，同时也暴露出了我们教育与经济发展不均衡的一些现象，尽管他们只是暂时的。
经济发展与基础教育的不对称

其实这样的无知，从根本上讲，与其他的社会科学所关注的问题一样，都是有着深刻的制度背景的。而这里的制度背景则主要基于教育相对于经济发展而略显滞后的问题。我们这一代其实是处在经济和教育的双轨转型中。这种转型注定了我们的不平凡，也预示着我们会遇到更多的困惑。

想想几十年前我们父母一辈与命运抗争的历史，我们作为80后无疑是幸运的。相比较他们，我们可以接受更好的教育，我们可以说很好的英语，我们可以阅读国外的英文原版小说，而这些也给予了我们与国际接轨的机会。我们不再受累于意识形态的问题，我们不再受制于“阶级斗争”，我们也不再为了想读书而没书读郁闷。在我们的记忆中，政治因素尽管没有如90后般一无所知，但是却也没有深刻到左右我们的想法和言论了。即使我们在遇到一些隐性限制的时候，我们也有了爬墙的技术。四角的天空不再属于我们，我们正在拥有更广阔的天空。

但是几十年前的社会变革对我们的影响是深刻的。以前我一直不理解为什么我做的财务研究都要去考虑经济后果，现在我明白了。如果将社会发展看作一个可以无限延伸的时间轴，而将大小的社会事件（Social Events）作为其中的一分子，我们就会发现：一些事件的影响是深远的。在我小时候的影响里，我一直坚持着“无神论者”该有的一切，我坚定的认为“迷信”是不对滴～～。似乎只有那个长得酷似KFC门口的大爷的言论才是真理。同时我也坚定的认为：一切旧思想都是糟粕，唐诗宋词也不必过度关注。然而，随着教育的深入，我发现，我是彻底的错了。宗教是一种人类心灵的寄托，它本身无对错可言。更何况很多宗教都崇尚人性的善良本质。这不是我们需要的么？而至于古典文学知识的缺乏，更是让我羞愧。我真不知道遇到一个比我精通中国文化的老外时我会做何感想。

一场变革所带给我们的不仅仅是知识的缺乏。更多的其实导致了很多人的道德层面的部分缺失。当然，我这里所指的并不是说“良心”的缺乏，更多的，我需要讨论的是对别人劳动的尊重，对环境的重视以及团队贡献方面的缺乏。而这种观念的缺乏则会导致大量的“愤青”和“五毛”。其实不客气点说，我所指的“愤青”基本可以属于“脑残”级别了。因为他们往往不会去独立思考，会做的只是人云亦云。而“五毛”则在此层面上与“愤青”保持着高度的一致。
这条消息的背后：盲从与无知

我不知道为什么有那么多人会不加思考的去RT这类消息。作为饭后谈资，我们不如来分析一下这段话的逻辑。首先分析关于盗版的一段。

由于美国最近要针对中国上诉WTO知识产权保护问题，微软正在为美国政府搜集相关证据，在最近自序，为了咱中国利益，请大家不要开启自动更新。如果起诉成功,中国将要赔款几百亿.已经开启当提示要你安装“正版增值计划”请别安装！安装后会在任务栏右下角出现一个蓝色五角星符号！这样就会被微软追踪锁定，以向美国政府提供证据！

我们可以作出如下逻辑推演：我们使用盗版-微软会检查-微软检测到盗版会起诉-我们就会赔钱-免费使用泡汤。而据此，我们提出一个逆否命题：若要免费，则不可让微软查到盗版，所以我们要阻止微软的搜集证据。大伙儿不觉得这个很可笑？其实这不仅仅是一个冷笑话，更深入的思考我们会发现至少两方面的问题，而这两个问题看起来就不是那么好笑了：
1. 版权意识缺乏严重
  
  俗话说，亡羊补牢，为时不晚。其实对于大多数人而言，了解和尊重知识产权并不难。但是可悲的是，在知识产权面前，大多数人集体失言了。而上文则很好的说明了这一点。习惯于逻辑推理的人会很快发现，这段看似逻辑严密的文字底下其实隐藏了一个非常要命的前提，那就是：使用盗版是理所当然的！如果说个人把这个强盗逻辑奉为圣贤尚情有可原，给其套上“国家利益”则是要命的错误了。难道我们的国家利益就是这么掠夺来的？我想没人会这么认为吧。
  
  事实上，Windows并不是一个开源软件，而是一款商业软件。作为商业软件，我开发，你付费是很符合逻辑的行为。毕竟天文数字般的代码行数背后折射出了巨额的人工和智力方面的投入，而作为一个商业公司，不计回报是不可能的。我们付费使用Microsoft的产品，其实本身也是对广大程序员工作的一种肯定。毕竟不要忘了，微软亚洲研究院是微软产品开发一支非常重要的主力。而其中有为数不少的员工是我们同胞。其实我们无视版权，也大大损害了我们自己的利益。
  
  价格昂贵永远是一个千年不换，万年不改的借口。不可否认，尽管微软已经在中国地区给予了更低的价格，但是与国民的人均可支配收入而言，还是比较贵的。但是这绝对不是借口。因为对大中型商业公司、科研院所以及高级知识分子们而言，软件价格并非承受不起。而对个人用户而言，其实很多商业软件，甚至操作系统都是可以用开源软件代替的。我曾因为科研工作在Ubuntu下呆了一个礼拜，通过各种方法，我的工作和娱乐都得到了保障，并没有太多的问题。只是大多数人不愿意去钻研罢了。或许这就是“习惯的力量”吧。下图是某网站Win7售价：
2. 没有隐私保护意识
  
  之所以说到隐私保护策略，是因为太多愤青认为微软会利用后门程序达到一些“不可告人的目的”，同时提到WGA验证机会是为“美国政府”提供证据，从而建议关闭Windows Update。事实上，我早期也是此说法的坚定拥护者，甚至于我从来不去打补丁。但是结果呢？微软没有提醒我，但是“冲击波”却给当时我们几个人上了一课。自此以后，我就打补丁了。电脑系统出问题可不好玩。
  
  其实作为一个商业软件，搜集数据是无可厚非的。毕竟相关的数据可以帮助他们更好的开发，但是大量的数据搜集是在用户知晓的情况下进行的。比如最著名的“用户体验改善计划”，就是典型的数据搜集程序。但是需要注意的是，这种数据搜集并不是没有限制的。在微软的说明书和网站提供的隐私保护条款中都明确说明了数据搜集的范围和用途。我知道大多数的国内用户都是不会去看这类长篇说明的。但是你没看到可不代表别人没做啊。
  
  当然，通过WGA的统计来搜集盗版数量就更正常不过了。俗话说的好：若想人不知，除非己莫为啊！
结论与思考

其实版权意识也好，隐私保护也罢，甚至于缺乏独立思考的能力，都有着深层次的原因，不是我们这里一两句话讲得清楚的，同时有些话也是不能说的。其实对学术界的同僚们而言，我们也希望我们的成果被引用，而不是被直接“参考”；对于广大的博主而言，我们希望我们的文章合法转载而不是被“采集”；对于广大的设计者而言，我们希望我们的创意被肯定，而不是被“山寨威武”。既然如此，我们为什么不从消灭自己电脑里的盗版软件开始呢？

至于麦当劳的问题，我就不提了。毕竟这个跟我这篇文章主题出入大了点。不过建议愤青们去学习下税法和财务相关知识。中国的税务机关也不是傻瓜。发票是税务机关控制税源的一个重要渠道，但是却不是唯一的渠道。要知道，美国的餐馆也是只给Bills，而不给发票的。难道美国餐馆都免税了？

Some Words for The Chinese New Year of 2010

Time has been passed over the 12:00 point and now it is the last day of the 2009 and we are welcoming the first day of the new year, according to the traditional calendar of China. Just like the westerners are caring much on the Christmas and New Year’s day, that the Chinese have paid adequate attention to this festival for thousands of years. However, the Chinese New Year is a bit different from the others. More precisely, I find no feeling that I am welcoming an important festival. Instead, I have received some unexpected gifts for my coming new year.

The poor weather these days

Such feeling may be partially due to the poor weather that most regions in southern China are suffering. It is curious that the weather of this winter is so abnormal that you can hardly judge whether you are living in spring or winter. The temperature of Suzhou yesterday has been raised to 17 degrees while it drops to 3 today. It is just like that we are drawn back from the spring to winter. So, definitely, it is very hard to keep a good mood in humid days. I am really quite interested in how the Britain overcome such influence from the weather to their moods. You should know that such humid weather is quite normal in England.
Concerns on admission to graduate schools

The application of graduate schools is also making me feel increasingly anxious. Anyway, a lesson that I learned in this process is quite similar to what Kuan told me before. That is, never try the thing before you are fully prepared and understood. The weakened economic conditions around the world is really a bad news for my application. A special funding for overseas research student has been abandoned. And there is no news now for the schools in Asia.Frankly, comparing to the different systems, for PhD programs in business school. The schools in US and Asia are definitely choices. I can hardly understand why there is no requirement for publications to the PhD students in UK and Australia. While, for candidates, it is quite a good news, since they won’t have to lead a life that is fully composed with paper writing, and they may thus have a excuse to stop reading papers. While, when graduated, I am quite worried about the employment of these students. Concerning the immigrants policy in UK, most graduates may have to come back to China. However, a PhD without papers of high quality may have to face a nightmare when applying for a teaching position.
Dissertation

The dissertation is also a terrible experience for me. Though with the skills that I have mastered in the past two years, working as a research assistant, the accomplishment of such a dissertation would not be a problem, it is becoming a problem as well. The most definite reason for this unfortunate is my timing arrangement as well as the concerns on the dissertation itself. Frankly speaking, timing is really a great problem for me, reading books, papers at the same time has been a great job, I have to spare some more time for my writing.The paper is also encountering its own difficulty. Following my research interest in the past few years, the topic of my dissertation is also about the timing patterns of the annual reports. However, to construct a paper with recognized quality, solid foundation on theory and hypothesis development is quite essential, as I have suggested to my colleagues. However, with the theory that I have mastered, considering the behavior via the timing pattern is a too superficial decision that it fails to dig into the nature of contemporary research. Obviously, the essential factor that are affecting the investors’ protection should be the earning information, while the timing patterns is only a behavior that is influenced by the similar root.
My Wish for the New Year

Anyway, things have to be dealt with regularly no matter how boring and difficult they are. Following the tradition of the Chinese New Year that I should establish my own wish for the coming year, I do wish I can be admitted to a recognized graduate school, or alternatively, be offered an accepted industrial position with average salary that I can consider my house compensation and marriage. This is of great priority.

Some Tips for Rookie Empirical Researchers

最近大家都开始做毕业论文了。鉴于现在国内外的学术潮流，大家都开始做实证了。哎，说实话，我们80后这一代可真是累，穿衣服、吃饭、看书什么都要赶时髦，甚至连现在这“人人得而诛之”的毕业论文都开始给我们找麻烦。您说洋洋洒洒数万字的规范研究有什么不好，既可以天马行空，也可以写的很潇洒。若有哪位牛人从小熟读唐诗宋词、楚辞汉赋，此时论文写作便是该君最为得意的时候。可惜，古人云，天有不测风云，今人曰，研究有风险，如今实证研究大行其道，不做点实证研究，毕业论文不放几个表格，不放几张统计图，不去写上一些数学模型，如何能一讨恩师的“芳心”？

正所谓闻道有先后，术业有专攻。由于本人恩师在实证研究上的痴迷，我也就比较早的感受到了实证研究的痛苦与残酷，而自然在如何避免“踩地雷”方面有了自己的一点心得，这里就大家最常见的一些问题来给出一些个人的见解，以求抛砖引玉。

我们一般做研究的数据可以从哪里取到？数据一般使用什么格式？

一般我们的数据都不需要手工搜集。我们学校（中南财经政法大学）已经购买的数据库可以搞定大部分的财务报告数据和公司治理等方面的数据。而CSMAR则可以找到股票回报率方面的数据（我们学校没有高频数据）。如果觉得数据还是不够用，则有两种处理方法：
1. 手工搜集：我们可以通过巨潮网取得所有上市公司公开发布的报告，包括定期公告和临时公告。
2. 请求外援：我们可以通过其他学校的朋友来帮忙。比如Wind的数据质量很高，但是我们学校没有购买。于是我们可以通过自己的人脉去那些购买此数据库的学校和机构来求助。
数据格式可以有各种各样，比如常用的Excel格式，数据库DBF格式，以及各种统计软件的格式等。具体使用什么格式，可以根据自己的情况来定。Junjun早期比较喜欢Excel格式，因为其处理灵活，但是现在更倾向于DBF，因为它能够具有更好的后期处理接口，同时格式定义更规范。
我的数据应该如何来合并？异常值和空值如何处理？

一般来说，我们做研究的数据来源非常广泛，有手工搜集，有来自于不同的数据库，甚至还有部分数据来自于网站。那么，如何把这些数据进行合并是个非常要命的问题。这个问题也曾让Junjun郁闷了很久，想必也是大多数初级选手的绊脚石。大多数情况下，我们可以有三种方式来进行数据文件的合并：
1. 利用Excel进行合并
  
  这是最简单，但是也是最容易出错的一种合并方式，尤其是当你对Excel的各种函数并不是很熟悉的时候。常用的函数有Vlookup，Hlookup等。其实Excel不仅仅可以用来合并，同时它也是数据处理不错的工具。Junjun早期的数据处理也是基于Excel做的。只是Excel的运算效率有点低。Junjun曾有一项最高纪录：一句复杂条件匹配函数在笔记本上计算了20个小时。
2. 利用Access类进行合并
  
  这是一种比较常用的方式。简言之，就是使用Access等自带的SQL（结构化查询语言）来进行处理。SQL具有远比Excel更优秀的算法，效率非常高。但是Access也有缺点，那就是数据库对格式要求远没有Excel灵活，这就导致了一些情况下数据类型不匹配问题的发生。
3. 利用专业软件包进行合并
  
  这也是一种高效率方法，但是Junjun在这里并不推荐给新手，除非你准备未来投身于学术界。通过专业软件包的一些关键语句可以很好的合并，效率绝对不逊于Access，但是需要Hand Coding。对于没有Programming的童鞋而言，这可能就是一种杯具了。
对于空值和异常值的处理，最简单的方法就是剔除。当然，也有一些备选方法，比如对于异常值采用Winsorize方法，对于空值通过EM算法来填充等等。只是这些方法需要更好的技巧和Programming的技术，此处就不赘述了。
我应该使用什么统计模型来分析呢？

不得不说，这个问题非常高深。高深到Junjun现在还是深受其害。按照统计学的说法，我们应该根据不同的数据样本来选择不同的估计方法。什么？听着像废话。那就说点实用的，但是却是没有科学根据的。一般情况下，如果你跟Junjun一样，怕瞎弄闹笑话，那就假定自己的数据服从正态分布（Normal Distribution），采用OLS。而如果你的被解释变量是两分类的虚拟变量，请考虑使用Logistic回归，如果是多分类，可以使用Logit。而如果数据有存在很大的偏倚，则请考虑Tobit。具体的方法，可参考相关计量经济学和统计学教材。
我应该使用什么统计软件？或者说，什么统计软件好用？

这也是一个新手容易问到的问题。这个问题看起来幼稚，事实上却并不简单。其实在Package的选择上，完全遵循着咸菜萝卜各有所好的道理。以工作平台为例，Junjun非常喜欢在Linux下运行计算软件、利用Latex进行论文写作等。而更多的同学可能更觉得Windows+Word平台比较合适等等。

Junjun也曾试用过很多统计软件，如Eviews，SPSS，Stata，SAS和R。就我个人感觉而言，SPSS无疑是最容易上手的。Junjun最早的一篇论文就是使用SPSS完成了所有的工作。但是，SPSS的低效率也实在让Junjun难以忍受。但是不可否认，SPSS最容易找到中文教程，毕竟这是最早进入中国市场的统计软件包。目前最新的版本是17.0（不知道最近更新了没～）。

Stata则是统计软件中的新秀。该软件的特点是短小精悍。定制很灵活，可扩展性强，适合中高级用户。由于这个软件的高扩展性，某些任务在此软件下会非常容易。但是，需要说明的是，大多数关于此软件的教程和说明皆为E文。国内尽管也出版了几本教材，但是在人大论坛上却是恶评如潮。愿意使用此软件的童鞋，请作好阅读大量英文的准备。

SAS则是统计软件中的大哥大，价格昂贵。但是速度很快，支持并行处理。但是语法严格，必须要求正则表达。

R是一款开源软件，通俗来讲，是不要钱的。风格介于SAS和Stata之间。该软件在Linux下效率很高。
我的结果不显著怎么办？是不是可以改数据（结果）？

这是Junjun今天打算回答的一个最重要问题。其实这个问题也是让Junjun最烦的。其实实证结果不显著很好解释：那就是您所假设的关系并不存在。而解决这个问题，也不是那么简单了。除了技术层面的问题，这个问题的解决也涉及到了研究思想方面。在这个问题的理解上，Junjun要感谢他的老板，香港中大的TJ Wong和Joseph Fan教授，夏威夷大学的Shirley J. Daniel教授，台湾大学的李书行教授以及财大的诸多教授。

就Junjun个人的观点，结果不显著可以遵循以下几个方面来进行解决：
1. 我的研究思路有问题否？
  
  这是最基础的问题，但是也是最容易被忽视的。长久以来，我们总是有一种错误的观点。那就是我们先把实证结果做出来，然后再来考虑如何进行解释。殊不知，这种做法就如同当年大跃进一般的盲目。Junjun也曾是这种说法的坚定拥护者，但是在去年的培训中，被范博宏教授给狠K了。其实大多数情况下，我们的结果不显著，或者没法解释，都是因为研究思路的问题。
  
  作为一篇实证论文，最为核心的就是研究假设。所有的步骤，包括引言、文献回顾、研究设计都是基于此。一个合乎逻辑的假设应该有着完备的理论背景和坚实的现实基础。如果说，君的论文假设是拍脑袋想出来的（垃圾文章上的假设也归于此类），那么，君就得好好想下，您论文的假设是否符合逻辑。最简单的方法，您可以使用常见的基础理论，比如产权理论、交易成本理论来尝试从理论基础来推导，看假设基础是否坚实？同时，作为中国市场上的实证研究，我们同时要关注，这个命题是否具有现实性？相关的法规是怎么说的？制度背景是非常重要的。
  
  如果上述仍然不足以解决问题，您可以试着去阅读一些相关文献。尽可能去阅读国际顶级期刊文献，如TAR，JAR，JAE，RAS，JF，CAR等等。相比国内的文献，这些文献做的更严格。同时，关注下TJ Wong和Joseph Fan等人的研究。他们对中国的研究对我们具有很好的启发作用。
2. 我的研究样本是否有问题？
  
  这个问题其实与上述的现实性基础具有异曲同工之妙。作为研究样本，最容易被人攻击，而事实上也最容易出问题的就是样本具有Bias。而Bias的种类和产生都千差万别，最常见的就是Selection Bias。发现此类问题的最好方法就是进行描述性统计分析。同时，我们需要注意我们的研究样本与制度背景的匹配。如：在全流通环境下去研究非流通股股东显然是不合时宜的。
3. 我的数据处理是否出错？
  
  Junjun最喜欢说一句话，统计学是一门数学，而数学是严谨的。当数据处理出现错误的时候，最后数据分析的结果也会忠实的告诉您：这种关系不存在！或许您会认为这个问题非常幼稚，而事实上，Junjun曾也就此犯过错。这里有个真实的例子：Junjun曾在2008年做过一篇论文，由于当时技术尚不熟练，出了很多未知错误，导致结果非常牵强。在从美国开会回来对此文章进行大量重新修正的时候，Junjun仔细严格的重做了所有的数据，但是没有变更统计学模型和估计方法。而修改后的文章的结果显著性和预期吻合非常好。这就说明，在思路没有错误的时候，技术也是很重要的。
  
  常见的错误有区间配比错误，数据匹配错误等。还记得我前面提到的数据合并问题否？合并的错误可是很容易导致严重后果的哦～～
4. 跟导师沟通
  
  这是最后一招，也是Junjun用的比较多的一招。导师总是站的比我们高，看得比我们远的。Junjun曾因为论文数次骚扰了我敬爱的老板，甚至让老板亲自帮忙审阅了好几次英文论文稿。大家应该知道阅读英文论文的感受～～，更何况还是Junjun的Chinglish。
我是不是可以改数据（结果）？

这是今天的最后一个问题。其实这个问题不用Junjun回答大家都知道答案。大家都应该知道什么叫道德，什么叫做学术道德。如果一位科研工作者不能恪守学术道德的话，那他恐怕就没有资格再做这项工作了。目前中国的学术造假已经不少了，都已经驰名中外了，我们就不要再为此添砖加瓦了吧，哈哈，毕竟这可不是什么好事儿是吧？

写在最后：上述这几个问题是最近同学们问Junjun回答的最多的。但是Junjun在准备博士入学考试，所以没有大量的时间来回复。但是Junjun非常乐意就自己知道的来帮助大家。然而，Junjun跟大家一样，也只是一个在读的硕士研究生，眼界、知识难免有局限。这里所作的回答也只是基于Junjun个人的理解和感悟。不对的地方，还请大家一定要指出。

大家如果有新的问题，可以在下面写评论。第一次在我博客评论的同学可能会遇到评论审核。请大家不用着急，我会在第一时间来审核并回答的。谢谢大家的支持！

Citizen-managed Teachers: Their Past and Future

For most students like us, who were born and grew up in a city, participating state-owned schools, from kindergarten, primary school to middle school and university, it is hard for us to imagine the ‘citizen-managed’ teachers. The only impression for me is from the documentary films. But a recent notice on the future of these teacher bring such persons into our sight. It is the headlines of the journals and newspapers bring us the opportunity to take a consideration of all these teachers. Prior to the start of this article, I do wish all these teachers everything goes well. They have devote too much to the development of the education in China.

Citizen-managed Teachers and Their Past

Citizen-managed teachers, a special group of teachers that is widely seen in rural regions of China, forms a significant portion of the teachers in less developed regions of China. Unlike the teachers who are holding an official certification from the Ministry of Education, these teachers are taking their teaching positions in quite weak conditions, and are awarded quite little salary, which is about 1/4 to the certificated teachers, though their responsibilities on teaching and their loyalty on students are identical. The asymmetric role on their output and input is an essential feature for these teachers.

The citizen-managed teachers are rendered due to the demands from the comparatively weak economic conditions in some regions. Due to the schools in China are mainly state-owned, the salary for the teachers, especially those for primary and middle school, are from the government. The salary for the teachers is an important portion for the expense on education in annual budget for the government, both the central and locals. For those regions that can hardly support this salary in their budgets, citizen-managed teachers are employed. Their salary are mainly paid by the local village and the school they are working for directly.

For decades, the poor situation for these teachers are focused, and numerous films, documentaries and reports were published. With the concern of the financial constraints that are frequently suffered in those regions that the citizen-managed teachers are mainly distributed, these teachers may suffer from low payment for their salary, and they may not receive the medical insurance and pension plan from the government. For them, they have devoted too much to the education career.
The Contributions of the Citizen-managed Teachers to the Education in China

Though the development of the Chinese economy since the Open Door Policy from 1979 has promoted the civilization process of major cities in China, and the population living in metropolis and medium cities has been rapidly increased, the population of the rural regions is still dominant. The statistical showed that the amount of citizen-managed teachers was to be over 4.8 million in 1977 and this number was reduced in the near decades but it is still a large number due to the financial conditions.

In fact, these teachers has taught quite a lot of students, and they offered the children in remote rural regions an opportunity for their knowledge. Those we can easily find fully equipped schools in large cities like Beijing and Shanghai, where students are enjoying good education quality and excellent instruments, the conditions in rural regions are still limited, especially for the primary schools. One of my classmate used to tell me that his primary school was set by his resident village, which is located in a local temple. And there is only one teacher, who teaches all the grades and subjects, including Chinese, Moths, Music and Sports. It is such teachers that promoted the development of the education and indefinitely, the development of the country, on various realms, including science, technology and economy.
The Mandatory Termination for Citizen-managed Teachers: Possible Reasons

A recent announcement from the Ministry of Education showed that the citizen-managed teachers would have to be terminated mandatorily if they are not able to transfer their identity to a qualified teachers in time. This transfer would consist of a series of exams for courses on pedagogy and an integrated investigation on their teaching performance. The exams sounds likely to be simple but difficult for those teachers since they seldom receive formal training for such courses. In fact, in my opinion, a mandatory termination for such teachers may not that stable. But I suppose this announcement may involve two following governmental considerations.
1. Consideration on Improvement of Education Quality
  
  Frankly, the limited educational background fro most citizen-managed teachers can prevent them from improving the education quality. A statistics on these teachers shows that great partition of them are holding a high school diploma or equivalent. Though they may not face difficulty when teaching in a primary school, the enlightens on the students for broadening their horizon is a problem. In fact, the education quality on knowledge itself is undoubtedly important since it would perform a fundamental role in a student’s further study, the horizon should not be overlooked. And the termination may based on this consideration, since qualified teacher should know more besides teaching itself, ideally assumed.
2. Consideration on Employment for Newly Graduated Students
  
  This consideration sounds more or less out of morality though it is comprehensive. For years, the employment of newly graduated college students has been a social difficulty. And such problem is more severe in normal schools. Since the unique institutional background that the teachers in most public schools are supported by the government, the total amount is more or less fixed. Such situation made the employment for students from normal schools a great trouble. I have ever studied in Department of Mathematics in a normal school, I clearly understand its difficulty. My friends are working in various teaching positions, ranging from teachers in kindergarten to high school.
  
  Such difficulty on employment markets drive me to this direction. Terminating the citizen-managed teachers can provide more vacancies for these students. It sounds quite rational. Such solution can both reduce the difficulty of employment for college students and improve the education quality. But the question is, shall the graduates be willing to go to the rural regions for their career?
What Can They Do in Future?

For those teachers that are facing mandatory termination, it is obviously a tragedy. Since such termination mean they would have to transfer themselves to another industry. The process for such transfer can be difficult, especially when they are getting old, and they have devoted nearly all their best ages to their students. For younger teachers, who are in his/her 20s or 30s, taking some training, or obtaining a higher diploma would be a good idea. More directly, they can make full efforts on exams, pursuing to be a qualified teacher. While for the old ones, their lives may be a problem. They would be returned to the lives like their predecessors, leading their lives on the plants. I don’t know whether they should thank the government for such a release or not.

I don’t know why the governmental decision is always so arbitrary, from the Internet constraints, the controlling on the property market, to this termination for citizen-managed teachers. I suppose only when the government can fully make their decisions according to the wealth economics, the China can really be a developed country!

PS:Writing a structured blog is really a tiring job, but it does improve the readability.

Freedom on Internet: An Alternative Explanation

Abstract: This article mainly discuss the production of regulation on Internet, as well as its anticipated consequence, grounded with the traditional economic theory. i argue the appropriate regulation on Internet is necessary due to the existence of naive users of Internet as well as the herding behavior. But I also argue that strict censorship can also mean cliff effect, which is a tragedy for the users. The contribution of this article is that it is the first time to link the development of Internet to the economic understanding. And the conclusion is also of practical meanings to the academics and practitioners who are focus on the investors protection in emerging markets.

Keywords: Internet Censorship, Naive Internet Users, Tendency Protection

DISCLAIMER: THIS ARTICLE IS ONLY A PERSONAL ARGUMENT THAT CAN HARDLY FULLY REPRESENT THE KNOWLEDGE AND UNDERSTANDING THAT BOTH THE AUTHOR AND THE OWNER OF THIS BLOG OWN. PLEASE BE AWARE OF TAKING YOUR OWN JUDGEMENT FOR ANY PART IN THIS ARGUMENT. NO LEGAL RESPONSIBILITY WOULD BE AVAILABLE FOR ANY PART OF THIS ARTICLE FOR BOTH THE AUTHOR AND OWNER OF THIS SITE.

Introduction

The gambling between the freedom and regulation on Internet in China is now becoming quite a popular topic, especially when Google announced a preliminary decision on its willing of exiting, a direct way expresses his arguments and annoy to the regulations in China. Various discussions and arguments are available in numerous BBS and blogs. Obviously, the freedom on Internet is becoming a new instrument for the US government to criticize the weak protection of human rights in China. A speech made by Hilary Clinton, secretary of US, would apparently concentrate the attention all around the world to this topic. I don’t know if it is necessary to treat it as an important speech or just some words by a politician, since such arguments in really common to see. But in fact, in this post, I would like to provide some deeper understanding on this topic, providing academic explanation for this gambling.
Regulation: A Production of Non-Rationality.
1. Internet Under Ideal Conditions: A Rationality Hypothesis
  
  According to the traditional economic theory, we can suppose that the behavior of an individual would be unlikely important to the decisions of others’ given the setting that the participants in an environment is numerous and countless. In fact, the Internet can provide us such an ideal environment. Considering it as a globally connected network, and the cultural differences exist for users from different countries and regions, various concept of value would be conflict that eventually form equilibrium. But do remember that the equilibrium is a general one. Under such anticipation, the arguments and issues provided by individual to the Internet can hardly affect the others. In fact, the Internet is playing as an pot, integrating various opinions, understandings, and even trivialities. Thus, the regulation on such pot is meaningless since they can hardly affect any one else. The regulation on such behaviors would be meaningless and contradict to the principle of ‘cost-efficiency’.
2. Internet in Real World: Naive Users and Harding Behavior
  
  However, be aware that the setting described above is likely to be ideal, since there is a fundamental assumption of economics that, I assume the individuals using Internet are totally rational. That is, they can fairly judge and decide what to do without any influence from others, which are regarded as exogenous. While whether such assumption can fit the reality is a question. In fact, it is widely acknowledge that the knowledge an individual matters can significantly affect his attitude and depth of though for an event, and such attitude is also related to the characteristic and some psychological factors. For this reason,i shall hereby expand the rationality hypothesis, admitting that the attitude and style of decision-making is differentiated.
  
  Given the differentiated understanding, the interacting influence between the individuals can be anticipated. For differentiated individuals, two types can be generally distinguished, one is holding information advantage and good master of knowledge, who can fully think and express their opinions independently, while the other is comparatively weak on their knowledge and expression. Under such pyramid structure, those individuals with full knowledge and comparative information advantage can thus conduct the fashion, while the others would follow. In such setting, the interacting influence is formed. And the equilibrium I argued in ideal settings are now transformed into a Nash Equilibrium.
3. Regulation on Internet: A Protection Mechanism
  
  Thus the herding among the Internet users forms. Following the terms in capital, I define the users without sufficient knowledge to conduct their own decision as naive users. Due to their disadvantage on knowledge, such naive users would prefer to follow the fashion conducted by certain mature users. Under most occasions, such following can help hide their weak mastering of knowledge, which can be regarded as tendency protection. It is easy to anticipate that the pursuing of such protection can, under some occasions, lead to misleading by those who are conducting the fashions. Such misleading is from the conflict between the personal understanding and accepted virtue given a specified social environment. Related explanation would not be given here since its complexity. And it is the misleading, or say gaps between the understanding and accepted virtue that form the regulation.
Regulation on Internet, Be Appropriate!

The regulation can be important to constrain the fashion that is contradicting to the accepted virtue. In fact, FBI is taking real-time monitoring on the Twitter, a popular micro-blog service in US, to find the clues for both existing and potential victims. And the Emails to and from US is also filtered by the network gate for security purposes. In China, such monitoring is more severe. Messages and posts on BSP and BBS are totally filtered. Any contradicting information is abandoned by such filtering. Undoubtedly, such filtering offers us a better environment, protecting us from harmful information. Just imagine the Internet without regulation, virus, Trojan and trivialities would be the main stream of the Internet.

But we must also be clear that the monitoring, or say regulation should be appropriate. Too strict censorship can lead to ‘cliff effect’, a term used in economics and finance, representing the depression on information announcement in capital markets due to a strict regulation unacceptable to the investors and managers. Similar effect can also be anticipated in Internet as well. A good example on the censorship from China can obviously provide such explanation. Since the 7*5 Event in Xinjiang, China, the Internet service in Xinjiang Province is strictly controlled till now. No Email service, no instant messaging. Taking a surf to the BBS in Xinjiang, though accessible to the citizens there, little information can be found. The other example is on Google.com. There is little report in China, but it becomes a hot topic in WSJ, a top newspaper in the field of finance, in the next two days. Obviously, the censorship in China leads to the serious cliff effect. While, jokingly, I wonder, is the cliff effect just what the government want?
Censorship and Cliff Effect: A Tragedy for Most Chinese!

Admittedly, appropriate regulation on the Internet is unquestionable. Such behavior is meaningful to the protection of naive users, who takes up the majority. But too strict censorship in China has changed its purpose. In China, the censorships is being blindly expanded. Nearly all the excellent Web 2.0 service has been abandoned in China, the personal websites, including the BBS and blogs has been strictly controlled. Anything that is contradicting to the governmental willing, even the potential ones that can hardly be observed, would be deleted. Democracy has lost its meaning here. i don’t want to underestimate the brain power of the leaders, but frankly, such censorship is a tragedy.
Enlighments to Research on Capital Markets: A Joke

Literature on accounting and finance provide us evidence that the protection of investors is quite weak in emerging markets, and the governmental organization for regulation is seeking for an efficient way for solution. Now I suppose the answer has been out. That is, they can learn from the censorship of Internet, a good lesson on how to build a solid firewall against its citizen!

THFD: Free Lunch for Researchers

It is widely acknowledge for the researchers on finance and accounting as well as related fields that the access to the data for their researches are undoubtedly essential. Unlike the traditional research framework that our predecessors did in 1950s and earlier, when narrative researches are mainstreams, the research nowadays, defined as contemporary researches in most literatures, are taking great preference on analytical methods and quantitative analysis. For researchers in China, especially for the fields of accounting and finance, empirical research is very popular these days. While, the data for these researchers who are conducting empirical researches means a lot, because they can directly decide the availability of a proposed research.

For most researchers that are employed in top institutions, the access to these data would not be a problem since they are mainly purchased by the library, clients within the certain IP range would be permitted for their visits. But for the graduate students and some researchers who are not in the top institution, the access would be a problem since the library of their institution would not will to, or without sufficient financial ability to afford, to purchase such service. Thus for them, doing contemporary research and publish their papers in top journals would be a nightmare. In fact, due to the lack on access to COMPUSTAT and CRSP, most researchers in China can hardly keep pace with the scholars in US and Europe for top researches, though that does not matter much since we can still do the research within China. Frankly speaking, the market of China itself can be regarded as a good example of emerging markets.

However, for those researchers and graduate students who even do not have adequate access to the data in China, it would be a nightmare. Without sufficient data and strong support for the conclusions (anticipated) in a manner that is based on strict statistical analysis, the research would be regarded of little value and credibility. In the old days, including me, I would use a VPN connection to some other top universities in China, acquiring the data from their databases, especially when I am taking my vacation off campus. Since the VPN service is only available for the faulty in my school.

But now, thanks to the carefulness of Junmei, it is her hard working and strong interest in research that eventually lead to the finding of the THFD, a free solution for the data access for most researchers in China, which is hard to believe in but is indeed the fact. According to the instruction on its site, this database is free to all the researchers who are interested in the China related questions. To start use this service, you shall visit its official site, and you will see the following site. Clicking the registration button would lead you to the site for a free registration. In fact, the interface for this database is quite similar to the Julin, a paid database provider in China. PS: A later test find that the Julin is also the provider of the data in THFD.

After registration, log in with your own username and password, you will be redirected to the main page, where you can start your data collection intermediately.

In an integrated site, you can conveniently collect various types of data in a single sheet and export it as Excel spreadsheet. But the structure for this spreadsheet would be two dimensional, you would need to transfer it into a long structure, which is more beneficial for most analysis. Such operation is quite simple in professional packages like Stata and R.

Considering that the potential readers for this post would be current and potential researchers who are at least, of some familiarity to the usage of such data, and this post is not intended to be an user guide, the details for the usage is not provided. For details and information, please refer to the help center provided in this database.

For users who are using Windows Vista / 7 and Internet Explorer 7/8, please turn your Compatibility View on. And, Internet Explorer is preferred. I have tried to visit this site with Chrome, but some unexpected errors occurred.

Please intuitively follow the copyright law in both China and the country of your residence when using this service. There is no English interface, which may bring you some trouble if you are not good at Chinese.